NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 8
NFL Week 8: October 28 – November 1, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 8.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (12 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7200, FanDuel (FD) – 8400. Hurts’ upcoming salary ranks him 5th/2nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (2-5) at Detroit Lions (0-7) – Over/Under: 48.5
Implied Team Totals:
Eagles = 26
Lions = 22.5
Hurts posted a passing line of 18/34, 236, 2:0, and 13-61-0 on the ground with a lost fumble at Las Vegas (13th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB6 finish.
Matthew Stafford logged a 28/41, 334, 3:0 passing line against the Lions last week, good for the QB2 finish.
The Lions rank 21st vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed and 27th in pass defense DVOA.
The Rams O-line ranks 1st in adjusted sack rate vs. a Lions’ defense which ranks 9th.
Hurts is the current QB4 on the season, and the Lions’ defense gives up the 5th most passing TDs per game (2.14).
Running Back
Michael Carter (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. Carter’s upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/31st on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) -10.5 at New York Jets (1-5) – Over/Under: 43
Implied Team Totals:
Bengals = 26.75
Jets = 16.25
Carter posted an 11-37-0 rushing line (3.4 avg.) and 8-67-0 on 9 targets (22%) with 47 snaps (72%) with 1 lost fumble at New England (14th vs. RBs) last week. Carter’s targets, catches, and receiving yards led the team.
Ravens’ RBs combined for an 11-29-1 rushing line (2.6 avg.) and 6-48-0 on 7 targets against the Bengals last week. The Jets’ O-line ranks 28th in adjusted line yards vs. the Bengals’ defense which ranks 2nd.
The Bengals’ defense ranks 16th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed. The Bengals’ defense gives up the 2nd most targets (9.57) and catches (7.57) to RBs.
Garbage-time points count all the same, and if check-down machine QB Mike White gets the start, Carter could be serviceable through the air for cheap.
Wide Receiver
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Sanders’ upcoming salary ranks him 26th/18th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
Cole Beasley (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 6100. Beasley’s upcoming salary ranks him 34th/29th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Miami Dolphins (1-6) at Buffalo Bills (4-2) -14 – Over/Under: 49. The Bills are coming off their bye.
Implied Team Totals:
Ravens = 31.5
Dolphins= 17.5
Sanders posted a 5-91-0 line on 8 targets (17.8%) with 71 snaps (92%) at Tennessee (32nd vs. WRs) in week 6. Beasley added a 7-88-1 line on 9 targets (20%) with 67 snaps (87%).
Falcons’ WRs combined for an 11-124-2 line on 19 targets at Miami last week. Not included here, but TE Kyle Pitts recorded a 7-163-0 receiving line on 8 targets last week. 6 of Pitts’ 8 targets came from the slot/wide, so there’s that.
The Dolphins rank 30th vs WRs in fantasy points allowed and 26th in pass defense DVOA. Either should offer a cheap, viable play. CB Xavien Howard will likely match up with Stefon Diggs more often than the other two WRs.
Tee Higgins (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 6300. Higgins’ upcoming salary ranks him 30th/26th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) -10.5 at New York Jets (1-5) – Over/Under: 43
Implied Team Totals:
Bengals = 26.75
Jets = 16.25
Higgins posted a 7-62-0 line on team high 15 targets (41.7%) with 42 snaps (67%), at Baltimore (8th vs. WRs) last week.
Patriots’ WRs combined for a 13-213-1 line on 19 targets against the Jets last week.
The Jets rank 3rd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed yet 28th in pass defense DVOA. The WRs DvP ranking is misleading, as the Jets have faced run heavy and/or weak passing teams thus far (Patriots twice, Falcons, Derrick Henry, Broncos, and Christian McCaffrey).
Higgins’ ranks 1st on the team in per game target share (27.4%) and redzone target share (38.5%). Higgins’ WOPR ranks him 15th for WRs, but his point production is lagging where he ranks 37th. This should catch up at some point. He’s a cheap play and the red “3rd” may push some off of him.
Tight End
Dan Arnold (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4900. Arnold’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/18th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4) -3.5 – Over/Under: 43. The Jaguars are coming off their bye.
Implied Team Totals:
Seahawks = 23.25
Jaguars = 19.75
Arnold posted a 2-27-0 line on 5 targets (12.5%) with 41 snaps (62%) against the Dolphins (23rd vs. TEs) last week, in his first game with the Jaguars.
The Seahawks rank 19th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed and 25th in pass defense DVOA.
Having the bye after his first game with the team should’ve given Arnold a week to acclimate himself with the playbook. Arnold is a near minimum cost option with a nice matchup.
