NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 3
NFL Week 3: September 23 – 27, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 3.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Justin Fields (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (10.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6500 (10.8% of cap). Fields’ upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/25th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns -7 – Over/Under: 46
Implied Team Totals:
Browns = 26.5
Bears = 19.5
Fields posted a passing line of 6/13, 60, 0:1, and 10-31-0 on the ground in just over a half against the Bengals last week. Andy Dalton (knee) left the game late in the first half last week, and has been ruled out already this week.
Texans’ QBs combined for an 18/29, 220, 2:1 passing line, and 3-14-1 on the ground at Cleveland last week.
The Browns rank 12th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed after facing the extremes of the Chiefs and Texans.
The Bears O-line ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Browns’ defense which ranks 25th.
Of note, Fields logged 7 (non-kneel down) rushes, in just over a half. Were this trend to continue, Fields could bring a huge floor at an underpriced salary.
Daniel Jones (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800 (11.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7400 (12.3% of cap). Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 13th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants -3 – Over/Under: 47.5
Implied Team Totals:
Giants = 25.25
Falcons = 22.25
Jones posted a passing line of 22/32, 249, 1:0, and 9-95-1 on the ground at Washington last week. Jones’ fantasy points of 29.46 made him the QB4 last week.
Tom Brady recorded a 24/36, 276, 5:0 passing line and 1-6-0 on the ground with a lost fumble. His 30.64 fantasy points was good for the QB3 finish.
The Falcons rank last vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed after facing Tampa Bay and Philadelphia.
Jones ranks 3rd in QB rushing yards (122) and tied for 1st in QB rushing TDs (2). Jones is currently the QB8 after facing tougher defenses, in Washington and Denver. Jones is poised for a potential ceiling game without the cost.
Running Back
Mike Davis (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100 (10.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Davis’ upcoming salary ranks him 27th/25th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants -3 – Over/Under: 47.5
Implied Team Totals:
Giants = 25.25
Falcons = 22.25
Davis posted a 9-38-0 rushing line and 7-25-0 on 7 targets (14.6%) with 46 snaps (64%) at Indy last week. Davis’ fantasy points of 13.3/9.8 ranked him 18th/21st on DK/FD, respectively.
The Washington RBs combined for a 17-79-1 rushing line and 7-87-0 on 8 targets against the Giants last week. The Falcons’ O-line ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards vs. the Giants’ defense which ranks 20th.
The Giants’ defense ranks 26th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed after facing Washington and Denver.
Cordarelle Patterson saw 33% of the offensive snaps last week, and an outlier amount of opportunities. Davis is still expected to lead this backfield regardless of game-script, and provides for a cheap option.
Wide Receiver
K.J. Osborn (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7.0% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Osborn’s upcoming salary ranks him 77th/65th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Seattle Seahawks -2 at Minnesota Vikings – Over/Under: 55.5
Implied Team Totals:
Seahawks = 28.75
Vikings = 26.75
Osborn posted a 5-91-1 line on 6 targets (18.8%) with 36 snaps (59%) at Arizona last week. Osborn’s fantasy points of 20.1/17.6 ranked him 17th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
Cardinals’ WRs combined for a 17-277-3 line on 22 targets against the Vikings last week, with fellow slot Rondale Moore posting a 7-114-1 line on 8 targets specifically.
The Seahawks rank 16th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed after facing Tennessee and Indy.
The Vikings are primarily running 11-personnel, which should have Osborn in play for dirt cheap.
Darnell Mooney (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300 (8.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Mooney’s upcoming salary ranks him 56th/38th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The Line: Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns -7 – Over/Under: 46
Implied Team Totals:
Browns = 26.5
Bears = 19.5
Mooney posted a 6-66-0 line on 8 targets (34.8%) with 58 snaps (89%) against the Bengals last week. Mooney’s snaps, targets, catches, and yards were team highs last week.
Texans’ WRs combined for a 13-167-1 line on 20 targets at Cleveland last week.
The Browns rank 17th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed after facing Houston and Kansas City.
With Fields now starting, Chicago skill players should all get a boost, and as 7 point dogs, Mooney should expect for a busy day.
Tight End
David Njoku (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.3% of cap). Njoku’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns -7 – Over/Under: 46
Implied Team Totals:
Browns = 26.5
Bears = 19.5
Njoku posted a 2-18-0 line on 3 targets (14.3%) with 36 snaps (59%) against the Texans last week.
The Bears rank 8th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, but this ranking is misleading as they only saw 2 targets for 2 catches and 4 yards from C.J. Uzomah last week, as the Bengals do not utilize TEs in their pass game.
WR Jarvis Landry (knee) has been placed on IR. Odell Beckham Jr. (ACL) is expected to make his debut this week, but could bring a limited impact if brought along slowly. Njoku makes for a sneaky play with the biggest ceiling potential of the Cleveland TEs, when the Browns aren’t implementing the ground and pound.
