NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 18
NFL Week 18: January 8 – 9, 2022
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 18.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Kyler Murray (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7400, FanDuel (FD) – 8400. Murray’s upcoming salary ranks him 4th/2ndon DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Seattle Seahawks (6-10) at Arizona Cardinals (11-5) -7 – Over/Under: 48.
Implied Team Totals:
Cardinals = 27.5
Seahawks = 20.5
Murray posted a 26/38, 263, 2:0 passing line and 9-44-0 on the ground at Dallas (19th vs. QBs) last week.
Tim Boyle logged a 22/37, 262, 2:3 passing line and 1-14-0 on the ground at Seattle last week.
The Seahawks rank 17th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed, 27th in pass defense DVOA, and 24th in dropback EPA.
The Cardinals’ O-line ranks 14th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Seahawks’ defense which ranks 29th.
The Cardinals have secured a playoff spot as the current #5 seed but could clinch the NFC West with a win AND a Rams’ loss. Murray should be fully motivated here.
Running Back
Devin Singletary (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Singletary’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/20th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: New York Jets (4-12) at Buffalo Bills (10-6) -16.5 – Over/Under: 43.
Implied Team Totals:
Bills = 29.75
Jets = 13.25
Singletary logged a 23-110-2 rushing line (4.8 avg.) and 1 target with 61 snaps (80%) against the Falcons (24th vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB3 finish.
Bucs’ RBs combined for a 21-62-0 rushing line (3.0 avg.) and 6-45-0 on 7 targets at the Jets last week.
The Jets’ defense ranks 32nd vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 26th in rush defense DVOA, and 25th in rush defense EPA. The Bills’ O-line ranks 9th in adjusted line yards vs. the Jets’ defense which ranks 22nd.
Singletary continues to dominate the Bills backfield touches and should continue to do so. The Bills need a win to clinch the AFC East, and Singletary gets the best RB matchup this week.
Wide Receiver
Brandin Cooks (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 7100. Cooks’ upcoming salary ranks him 14th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Tennessee Titans (11-5) at Houston Texans (4-12) +10.5 – Over/Under: 43.
Implied Team Totals:
Titans = 26.75
Texans = 16.25
Cooks posted a 7-66-1 line on 11 targets (36.7%) with 53 snaps (79%), at San Francisco (23rd vs. WRs) last week. His receiving line led team in all categories last week.
Dolphins’ WRs combined for a 7-93-0 line on 21 targets at Tennessee last week.
The Titans’ defense ranks 31st vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 7th in pass defense DVOA, and 8th in dropback EPA.
Cooks has averaged 10.7 targets, 7.3 catches, and 89.7 receiving yards over his past three games. He will be the offensive focal point in a spoiler opportunity.
Tight End
Zach Ertz (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Ertz’ upcoming salary ranks him 6th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Seattle Seahawks (6-10) at Arizona Cardinals (11-5) -7 – Over/Under: 48.
Implied Team Totals:
Cardinals = 27.5
Seahawks = 20.5
Ertz posted a 7-41-0 line on 9 targets (24.3%) with 69 snaps (91%), at Dallas (16th vs. TEs) last week.
No Lions’ TEs received a target at Seattle last week.
The Seahawks’ defense ranks 25th vs. TEs in fantasy points, 27th in pass defense DVOA, and 24th in dropback EPA.
The Cardinals clinched a playoff spot and have a shot at the NFC West title, but would need help. Ertz dropped an 8-88-2 line on 9 targets for 28.8 fantasy points at Seattle in Week 11.
