NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 17
NFL Week 17: January 2 – 3, 2022
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 17.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (14 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Prescott’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Arizona Cardinals (10-5) at Dallas Cowboys (11-4) -5.5 – Over/Under: 52. The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and the Cardinals have clinched a playoff spot.
Implied Team Totals:
Cowboys = 28.75
Cardinals= 23.25
Prescott posted a 28/39, 330, 4:0 passing line and 4-21-0 on the ground against Washington (32nd vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB2 finish.
Carson Wentz logged an 18/28, 225, 2:0 passing line at Arizona last week.
The Cardinals ranks 5th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed, 5th in pass defense DVOA, and 5th in dropback EPA.
The Cowboys’ O-line ranks 8th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Ravens’ defense which ranks 10th.
The Cowboys are still in the hunt for the #1 seed, and Prescott’s complementary pieces are healthy. LT Tyron Smith (ankle) is expected to return, which would also help the cause.
Running Back
David Montgomery (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6500, FanDuel (FD) – 7200. Montgomery’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: New York Giants (4-11) at Chicago Bears (5-10) -6 – Over/Under: 37.
Implied Team Totals:
Bears = 21.5
Giants = 15.5
Montgomery logged a 21-45-1 rushing line (2.1 avg.) and 7-61-0 on 9 targets with 58 snaps (78%) at Seattle (31st vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB7 finish.
Eagles’ RBs combined for a 28-123-1 rushing line (4.4 avg.) and 4-28-0 on 8 targets against the Giants last week.
The Giants’ defense ranks 24th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 27th in rush defense DVOA, and 27th in rush defense EPA. The Bears’ O-line ranks 27th in adjusted line yards vs. the Giants’ defense which ranks 30th.
Over the past four games, Montgomery has had a monstrous workload, averaging 17.5 carries, 7.8 targets, 6.5 catches, and 102.8 scrimmage yards. Montgomery should see this volume continue in a cake matchup as a near TD home favorite.
Wide Receiver
Joshua Palmer (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Palmer’s upcoming salary ranks him 81st/64th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Denver Broncos (7-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (8-7) -6.5 – Over/Under: 46. Both teams are technically still alive for the playoffs.
Implied Team Totals:
Chargers = 26.25
Broncos = 19.75
Palmer posted a 5-43-1 line on 6 targets (17.6%) with 60 snaps (97%), at Houston (16th vs. WRs) last week. Palmer’s receiving line led Chargers’ WRs in all categories last week.
Raiders’ WRs combined for a 13-134-1 line on 16 targets against the Broncos last week.
The Broncos’ defense ranks 6th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 16th in pass defense DVOA, and 8th in dropback EPA.
Palmer should see another volume opportunity in a must-win scenario, at a near minimum price.
UPDATE:
WR Mike Williams has been activated off the COVID list and WR Jalen Guyton is also expected to return. This development craters Palmer’s viability.
Braxton Berrios (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700. Berrios’ upcoming salary ranks him 78th on DK.
The Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-4) at New York Jets (4-11) +13.5 – Over/Under: 45. The Bucs have clinched the NFC South.
Implied Team Totals:
Buccaneers = 29.25
Jets = 15.75
Berrios posted a 5-37-0 line on 6 targets (28.6%) with 48 snaps (83%), against the Jaguars (24th vs. WRs) last week. His receiving line led Jets’ receivers in all categories last week. Sad, but true.
Panthers’ WRs combined for a 14-205-0 line on 28 targets against the Bucs last week.
The Bucs’ defense ranks 27th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 11th in pass defense DVOA, and 4th in dropback EPA.
Berrios is basically what’s left for the Jets, likely without Jamison Crowder (calf) and Elijah Moore (quad) again. As the biggest dogs on the board, he could see plenty of garbage-time looks, and he makes for a similar priced pivot off of Joshua Palmer.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Goedert’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at Washington Football Team (6-9) +3.5 – Over/Under: 44.5. Both teams have not yet been eliminated from playoff contention.
Implied Team Totals:
Eagles = 24
Washington = 20.5
Goedert posted a 2-28-0 line on 4 targets (14.3%) with 53 snaps (84%), against the Giants (17th vs. TEs) last week.
Dalton Schultz logged an 8-82-1 line on 9 targets against Washington last week.
The Washington’s defense ranks 18th vs. TEs in fantasy points, 27th in pass defense DVOA, and 30th in dropback EPA.
Goedert dropped a 7-135-0 line on 9 targets for 23.5 fantasy points on Washington in Week 15. Anything close to this would be a solid hit.
