NFL Week 4: September 28 – October 2, 2017
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 4.
Salary ranks are based on the full slate.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
Pittsburgh Steelers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Pittsburgh’s salary ranks them 4th/12th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on FD.
The Vegas line with the Ravens has the game total at 44 points with the Steelers as -3 point road favorites. The Ravens’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Steelers are currently at 23.5 points.
In a London game where the Jaguars typically play well, Jacksonville held Baltimore to 7 points and added 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, and a fumble recovery to the tune of 12 fantasy points last week.
Pittsburgh registered 2 sacks, 1 interception, and 1 fumble recovery at Chicago. Pittsburgh has 11 sacks through 3 weeks which ties for 2nd in the league. Baltimore ranks 17th in fantasy points against defenses. Pittsburgh currently ranks 3rd in yards allowed per game (259.3) and in points/gm (16.7).
Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4800. Kansas City’s salary ranks them 13th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on DK.
The Vegas line with the Redskins has the game total at 49.5 points with the Chiefs as -6.5 point home favorites. The Redskins’ implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Chiefs are currently at 28 points.
Kansas City held the Chargers to 10 points and recorded 2 sacks and 3 interceptions for 12 fantasy points in Los Angeles last week. Kansas City has 11 sacks through three weeks (tied for 2nd). Washington ranks 24th in DVP against defenses and will have to travel to a hostile environment for primetime Monday.
Cincinnati Bengals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Cincinnati’s salary ranks them 4th/10th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The Vegas line with the Browns has the game total at 40 points with the Bengals as -3 point road favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 18.5 points and the Bengals are currently at 21.5 points.
Indianapolis logged 1 sack and 3 interceptions against the Browns last week while Cincinnati was able to post 6 sacks, 1 interception, and a defensive TD before losing in Green Bay in overtime. Cleveland QBs have tossed up 8 interceptions through 3 weeks, double of the next highest teams. Cincinnati scored 14 fantasy points, ranking them tied for first last week. Cleveland ranks 29th in fantasy points given up to defenses.
Vontaze Burfict’s suspension ends, which should be a major boost for the Bengals.
New England Patriots – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. New England’s salary ranks them 6th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Panthers has the game total at 48.5 points with the Patriots as -8.5 point home favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 20 points and the Patriots are currently at 28.5 points.
Last week at home, Carolina allowed 14 fantasy points to New Orleans defense (tied for first). New Orleans racked up 4 sacks, 3 interceptions, and held Carolina to 13 points. Now they have to head to New England without Greg Olsen (IR) and possibly without Kelvin Benjamin (knee). Carolina ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to defenses.
New England posted 2 sacks and 2 interceptions against Houston last week. As a big home favorite, against an anemic offense with a lack of offensive talent outside of Christian McCaffrey, New England should be able to rack up points against Carolina. Cam Newton is currently the 23rd ranked QB in fantasy points, behind Jacoby Brissett and just ahead of Brian Hoyer. Expect Newton’s struggles to continue.
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