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NFL Player Prop Bets – Week 1

All Player Prop lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook.

This will be updated throughout the week as new props are posted.

On Sept. 10, 2021:

The Play: QB Patrick Mahomes (KC) Rush Yards

The Line: 12.5 rush yards

The Pick: Over (-120)

Despite adding a much needed four new starters to the Chiefs’ O-line in the offseason, this unit will be up against a formidable edge rush in the Browns, possibly forcing scrambles from Mahomes. Mahomes is a smart, effective scrambler when needed, and should be past his turf toe injury, without limitations.

Rush yard expectations for Mahomes fall around the 18-19 range. Mahomes eclipsed 12.5 rush yards in 12 of his 18 games played last season.

The Play: QB Ryan Tannehill (TEN) Pass Touchdowns

The Line: 1.5 pass TDs

The Pick: Over (-130)

In Tannehill’s 30 starts as the Titans’ QB, he’s eclipsed the 1.5 pass TD mark in 22 of those games (73.3%). The Cardinals’ weakest unit by far on defense is at CB, and with the addition of WR Julio Jones, Tannehill now has the strongest WR corps he’s ever played with.

The Play: RB Aaron Jones (GB) Rush Attempts

The Line: 16.5 rush attempts

The Pick: Under (-105)

Jones’ rush attempt expectations are likely more in the 12-13 range. He may get his touches through the air regardless. The Saints’ defense ranked 4th in adjusted line yards and rush EPA last season. The Packers’ run game does benefit as a current 3.5 point favorite however, but this may benefit RB A.J. Dillon as the early-down complement for Jones.

The Play: RB A.J. Dillon (GB) Rush Attempts

The Line: 6.5 rush attempts

The Pick: Over (-145)

Correlating this with Jones above, Dillon’s rush attempts project at 9. There is some juice to pay here, but still feasible.

The Play: Raheem Mostert (SF) Rush Attempts

The Line: 16.5 rush attempts

The Pick: Under (-130)

Mostert’s rush attempts range projects for 12-14. Mostert averaged 13 carries per games played last season, and 8.6 in 2019. In his past 29 games, spanning 3 seasons, Mostert eclipsed 16 carries/game twice. HC Shanahan runs an RBBC regardless of the year-to-year moving parts.

The Play: RB Mike Davis (ATL) Rush Attempts

The Line: 12.5 rush attempts

The Pick: Over (+105)

Davis’ rush attempts project for the 14-15 range. Davis gets a positive script as the Falcons are current 3.5 point home favorites, and is the uncontested RB1. His new HC Arthur Smith (former TEN OC), pounded Derrick Henry with 378 carries, a whopping league high (by 66) last season.

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