NFL Week 8: October 26 – 30, 2017
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 8.
Salary ranks are based on the full slate.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
Pittsburgh Steelers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4400. Pittsburgh’s salary ranks them 11th/17th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The betting lines with the Lions has the game total at 45 points with the Steelers as -3 point road favorites. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Lions are currently at 21 points.
The Steelers logged 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, and held the Bengals to 14 points last week. Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in yards allowed (258.7/gm) and 3rd in points allowed (16.6/gm). Pittsburgh also ranks 2nd (tied) in sacks with 24, 2nd in DVP against QBs, and 1st in DVP against WRs. No single WR has yet reached 65 yards against Pittsburgh this season.
Carolina registered 6 sacks and an interception at Detroit in week 5. Detroit ranks 27th in fantasy points allowed to defenses and gives up the 4th (tied) most sacks with 23.
Pittsburgh has a solid matchup at a nice price tag against Detroit, who may likely be missing Golden Tate (shoulder) again.
Buffalo Bills – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Buffalo’s salary ranks them 11th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Raiders has the game total at 45.5 points with the Bills as -2.5 point home favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Raiders are currently at 21.5 points.
Buffalo recorded one sack, one interception, and two fumble recoveries last week against Tampa Bay. Buffalo ranks 4th in points allowed with 16.8/gm and takeaways (tied) with 13. However, Oakland ranks 9th in fantasy points allowed to defenses.
Kansas City only registered a blocked kick at Oakland last week. Oakland finally had their blow up game last week, but will face a tougher matchup while traveling to the east coast for an early game. Buffalo is tough against the run, so Oakland’s offense will likely rely on the pass game. CB E.J. Gaines (hamstring) is currently day-to-day, but if he can’t go, this would be a boost to Amari Cooper. LeSean McCoy will need to be relied on to keep Derek Carr off the field.
Update: The Bills traded DT Marcell Dareus to Jacksonville for a conditional sixth-round pick. Downgrade Buffalo DST and consider Carolina DST.
Cincinnati Bengals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 4800. Cincinnati’s salary ranks them 4th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Colts has the game total at 41.5 points with the Bengals as -10 point (2nd widest on the board) home favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Colts are currently at 15.75 points.
The Bengals scored -1 fantasy points at Pittsburgh last week. Cincinnati ranks 5th in yards allowed with 289/gm and 6th (tied) in points allowed with 18.7/gm. The Colts rank 28th in yards at 291.3/gm and 27th (tied) in points scored with 17/gm.
Cincinnati also ranks 9th (tied) in sacks with 18 while Indianapolis gives up the most sacks with 29. Jacksonville crushed with 10 sacks and a shutout at Indianapolis last week. Indianapolis ranks last in fantasy points allowed to defenses.
The Bengals have a solid matchup against a bad team. TY Hilton was right when he said the O-line needs to block better. Coupling that with Jacoby Brissett holding onto the ball for too long (ranks 6th in longest time-to-throw at 2.89 seconds), this sets up for long, painful day for the Colts.
New Orleans Saints – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 4800. New Orleans’ salary ranks them 6th on both DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Bears has the game total at 47.5 points with the Saints as -9 point home favorites. The Saints’ implied team total is currently at 28.25 points and the Bears are currently at 19.25 points.
New Orleans registered a sack, an interception, and held the Packers to 17 points at Green Bay last week. New Orleans ranks 7th in interceptions with 8 and 12th in sacks with 17.
Chicago ranks 31st in pass yards with 158.6/gm, 26th in points scored with 17.4/gm, and 29th in fantasy points allowed to defenses. Chicago gives up the 2nd most turnovers with 14 and the 6th (tied) most sacks at 21.
Mitch Trubisky’s combined stat line for the past two games checks in at 12/23, 220, 1:0. If the implied game script holds in the Superdome, Fox will not be able to hide Trubisky and one of the worst receiver corps in the league forever, can he?
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