NFL Week 6: October 13th – 17th, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 6.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Brian Hoyer (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Hoyer’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/24th on DK/FD, respectively. Hoyer posted a line of 33/43, 397, 2:0 for a passer rating of 120.0 against Indianapolis. Hoyer’s fantasy points of 26.78/23.78 ranked him 5th on both DK and FD. Hoyer’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both DK and FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Jaguars has the game total at 47 points, with the Bears as -2.5 point home favorites.
Jacksonville’s defense ranks 7th best in pass yards allowed (198.8), 17th best in rush yards allowed (105.8), and 8th worst in points allowed (27.8). The Jaguars’ defense also ranks 7th worst against QBs (19.17), 5th worst against WRs (26.13), 8th best against RBs (14.83), and 7th best against TEs (4.3) in fantasy points allowed.
Hoyer is averaging 338 yards and a 2:0 line per game in the past three starts since taking over for Jay Cutler. During this span, Hoyer has finished in the top 10 for QBs, top 5 in price per point efficiency, yet his salary comes in the bottom-third for QBs. Hoyer has been the value play king for QBs thus far, and he has a solid matchup at home.
Carson Palmer (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Palmer’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/12th on DK/FD, respectively. Palmer (concussion) missed last week’s game but is set to start this week against the Jets.
The Vegas line with the Jets has the game total at 46.5 points, with the Cardinals as -8 point home favorites.
The Jets’ defense ranks 2nd worst in pass yards allowed (302.4) and 10th worst in points allowed (27.2). The Jets’ defense also ranks 4th worst against QBs (21.67), 2nd worst against WRs (28.88), and 8th worst against TEs (9.76) in fantasy points allowed.
Palmer has a great get-right opportunity against a Jets defense that is susceptible to the deep ball, which is exactly in Arizona’s wheelhouse of what they like to do. The Jets are strong against the run, which should help Palmer’s opportunities despite the implied negative game script.
Marcus Mariota (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Mariota’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th on both DK and FD. Mariota recorded a line of 20/29, 163, 3:0 for a passer rating of 117.5 and 7-60-1 on the ground against Miami. Mariota’s fantasy points of 30.52 ranked him 4th on DK and 1st on FD. Mariota’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK and FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Browns has the game total at 43.5 points (tied for lowest on the board), with the Titans as -7 point home favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 13th worst in rush yards allowed (114.2), 8th worst in pass yards allowed (288.4), and 2nd worst in points allowed (29.6) per game. Browns’ defense allows the 3rd most pass TDs with 13 and rank in the bottom-third in sacks with 7. Cleveland’s defense also ranks 28th against QBs (20.2), 24th against RBs (21.06), 18th against WRs (24.22), and last against TEs (16.02) in fantasy points allowed.
Mariota gets his turn against Cleveland where he can potentially bring the pain through the air and on the ground along with a very reasonable price tag.
Running Back
Giovani Bernard (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4600, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Bernard’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/35th on DK/FD, respectively. Bernard posted a line of 9-50-0 on the ground and 6-46-0 on 6 targets against Dallas. Bernard’s fantasy points of 15.6/12.6 ranked him 17th/18th on DK/FD, respectively. Bernard’s price per point efficiency ranked him 14th/13th on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.
The Vegas line with the Patriots has the game total at 47 points, with the Bengals as +9 point road dogs (widest spread on the board).
New England’s defense ranks 18th in pass yards allowed (258.6), 9th in rush yards allowed (86.4), and 4th in points allowed (14.8) per game. New England also ranks 4th against RBs (14.24) in fantasy points allowed.
Bernard led Cincinnati RBs in carries (9) and targets (6) against Dallas. Bernard ranks 3rd in receiving yards (211) and 2nd in targets (30) and catches (25) for RBs. The implied game script could potentially leave Bernard open for receiving opportunities as Cincinnati plays catchup mode. New England could potentially focus on shutting down A.J. Green, leaving the “bend but don’t break” yards to Bernard and Brandon LaFell.
Jonathan Stewart (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 6300. Stewart’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/27th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD.
The Vegas line with the Saints has the game total at 53 points (highest on the board), with the Panthers as -3 point road favorites.
New Orleans defense ranks 26th in rush yards allowed (121.5) and last in points allowed (32.5) and against RBs (29.9) in fantasy points allowed. Stewart (hamstring) is projected to return and has a choice matchup along with a positive game script. With Cam Newton (concussion) also expected to return, Stewart may potentially see an uptick in carries if the scheme would have Newton run less to protect himself.
Jamaal Charles (KC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 7100. Charles’ upcoming salary ranks him 19th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Raiders has the game total at 47 points, with the Chiefs as +1 point road dogs.
The Raiders’ defense ranks last in passing yards allowed (330.6), 27th in rush yards allowed (122), and 24th in points allowed (27.4). The Raiders’ defense also ranks 26th against RBs (21.22) in fantasy points allowed.
Charles (knee) returns from a bye week and is supposedly now fully healthy. Charles has no physical limitations and has a solid matchup with a relatively cheap price tag.
Wide Receiver
Cameron Meredith (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Meredith’s upcoming salary ranks him 52nd/66th on DK/FD, respectively. Meredith put up a line of 9-130-1 on 12 targets (all team highs) and 6 rushing yards against Indianapolis. Meredith’s fantasy points of 30.6/22.1 ranked him 4th/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Meredith’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/2nd on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.
The Vegas line with the Jaguars has the game total at 47 points, with the Bears as -2.5 point home favorites.
Jacksonville’s defense ranks 7th in pass yards allowed (198.8) and 25th in points allowed (27.8). The Jaguars’ defense also ranks 5th worst against WRs (26.13) in fantasy points allowed and have given up the13th most pass TDs (8).
Meredith’s price is almost a free square and with Kevin White (IR) out, he could potentially bring production on the cheap.
John Brown (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 6600. Brown’s upcoming salary ranks him 41st/30th on DK/FD, respectively. Brown put up a line of 1-11-0 on 4 targets against San Francisco with Drew Stanton under center.
The Vegas line with the Jets has the game total at 46.5 points, with the Cardinals as -8 point home favorites.
The Jets’ defense ranks 31st in pass yards allowed (302.4) and against WRs (28.88), and 23rd in points allowed (27.2).
Brown is Arizona’s deep threat, and could potentially put up 12 points in a single play. With Carson Palmer back in the fold, it wouldn’t be surprising for the Cardinals to take their shots deep where the Jets are weak.
Jeremy Maclin (KC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Maclin’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/24th on DK/FD, respectively. Maclin is coming off a bye, but in week 4 against Pittsburgh, he put up a line of 5-78-0 on 8 targets.
The Vegas line with the Raiders has the game total at 47 points, with the Chiefs as +1 point road dogs.
The Raiders’ defense ranks last against WRs (30.98), in passing yards allowed (330.6), and 24th in points allowed (27.4). When aligned in the slot, Maclin will match up with D.J. Hayden, Oakland’s weakest corner. Maclin is reasonably priced with a great matchup this week.
Tight End
Charles Clay (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Clay’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/20th on DK/FD, respectively. Clay put up a line of 5-73-0 on 5 targets against Los Angeles. Clay’s fantasy points of 12.3/9.8 ranked him 13th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Clay’s price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/9th on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.
The Vegas line with the 49ers has the game total at 44 points, with the Bills as -8 point home favorites.
San Francisco’s defense ranks 22nd against TEs (7.98) in fantasy points allowed, 10th in passing yards allowed (222.8) and 26th in points allowed (28), and passing TDs allowed (10). Clay potentially has a shot at outperforming his salary rank in a good matchup.
Jesse James (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. James’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/16th on DK/FD, respectively. James put up a line of 6-43-1 on 8 targets against the Jets. James’ fantasy points of 16.3/13.3 ranked him 7th/11th on both DK/FD. James’ price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Dolphins has the game total at 47.5 points, with the Steelers as -7.5 point road favorites.
Miami’s defense ranks 24th against TEs (9.56) in fantasy points allowed, 16th in pass yards allowed (250.2), and 18th in points allowed (23.8). James leads the Steelers in red zone targets (5), catches (4), and TDs (3). The Steelers offense shouldn’t have issues with Miami’s defense, and James is a red zone threat coming with a cheap price.
Check out the Week 6 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 6 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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