NFL Week 5: October 5 – 9, 2017
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 5.
Salary ranks are based on the full-slate.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Winston’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/7th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Winston recorded a 22/38, 332, 3:0 line and 4-12-0 on the ground against the Giants. Winston’s fantasy points of 29.48/26.48 ranked him 3rd/6th for QBs on DK/FD. Winston’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/5th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Patriots has the game total at 55.5 points (highest on the board) with the Bucs as +5.5 point home dogs. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 25 points while the Patriots are currently at 30.5 points. This will be the target game on the full-slate.
New England ranks last and/or near last against every DVP offensive position. New England also ranks last in yards allowed/gm (456.8) and 31st in points allowed/gm (32). Cam Newton lit up New England for a 22/29, 316, 3:1 line and an additional 8-44-1 line on the ground, finishing as the week 4 QB1/QB2 ranking on DK/FD, respectively.
Winston gets an easier matchup this week than last.
Brian Hoyer (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Hoyer’s upcoming salary ranks him 31st/29th on DK/FD, respectively. Hoyer recorded a 24/49, 234, 0:1 line at Arizona. Hoyer’s fantasy points of 8.66 ranked him 29th/28th for QBs on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Colts has the game total at 44 points with the 49ers as +1.5 point road dogs. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 21.25 points.
Russell Wilson put up a line of 21/25, 295, 2:2 against the Colts last week. The Colts rank 24th DVOA against the pass, 28th DVP against QBs, and 30th overall. Hoyer gets a good matchup for a decent floor at a near bare minimum cap saving price.
Running Back
Duke Johnson (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Johnson’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/21st on DK/FD, respectively. Johnson put up a line of 4-13-1 on the ground and 9-47-0 on 10 targets against Cincinnati last week. Duke’s touches and targets led the team. Duke’s fantasy points of 21/16.5 ranked him 9th/10th on DK/FD for the position. His price per point efficiency ranked him 9th/15th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Jets has the game total at 39 points with the Browns as -1 point home favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 20 points.
Jacksonville backs put up a combined ground line of 35-137-0 and an aerial line of 8-70-1. The Jets rank 29th in DVP against RBs, 27th in DVOA against the rush, and 20th in DVOA against RBs in the pass.
Due to the Browns utter lack of depth at the receiver position, he is Cleveland’s de facto WR1 and RB2 as he leads the team in receptions, targets, and receiving yards, by a large margin.
Carlos Hyde (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6900, FanDuel (FD) – 7200. Hyde’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Hyde put up a line of 16-68-0 on the ground and 5-27-0 on 6 targets at Arizona last week. Hyde’s fantasy points of 14.5/12 ranked him 20th/29th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Colts has the game total at 44 points with the 49ers as +1.5 point road dogs. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 21.25 points.
Seattle backs put up a combined line of 27-132-1 on the ground and 4-51-1 in the air. The Colts rank 13th in DVP against RBs, 24th in DVOA against the rush, and 24th in DVOA against RBs in the pass.
Hyde will have a much easier matchup and should bring a solid floor with TD upside.
Wide Receiver
Devante Parker (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6600, FanDuel (FD) – 6100. Parker’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/33rd on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on FD. Parker put up a line of 6-69-0 on 8 targets (all team highs) against New Orleans last week in London. Parker’s fantasy points of 12.9/9.9 ranked him 27th/29th on DK/FD for the position.
No Vegas line available yet as Marcus Mariota’s (hamstring) status is currently unknown. Miami hosts Tennessee on Sunday.
Tennessee ranks 31st DVP against WRs, QBs, and overall. Parker has led the team in receiving yards every week and will be Miami’s best aerial chance to score and gets an optimal matchup. Jay Cutler has been struggling of late, but that shouldn’t keep him from slinging it Parker’s way.
T.Y. Hilton (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7300. Hilton’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Hilton put up a line of 3-30-0 on 6 targets at Seattle last week. Hilton’s fantasy points of 12.2/9.2 ranked him 7th/9th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the 49ers has the game total at 44 points with the Colts as -1.5 point home favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points.
San Francisco ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass and DVP against WRs. Arizona WRs combined for a 18-218-1 line against the 49ers last week. Hilton is in a blow up spot for a high ceiling potential return.
Jaron Brown (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Brown’s upcoming salary ranks him 41st/100th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD. Brown put up a line of 8-105-0 on 12 targets against San Francisco last week. Brown’s fantasy points of 21.5/14.5 ranked him 7th/11th on DK/FD for the position. Brown’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/5th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Eagles has the game total at 45 points with the Cardinals as +6.5 point road dogs. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 19.25 points.
Charger WRs combined for a 13-281-1 line against Philly last week. Philly ranks 28th DVP against WRs and 17th DVOA against the pass.
Brown ranks 2nd in all statistical categories for Arizona WRs behind Larry Fitzgerald. Brown ranks 18th in avg. targeted air yards with 15.1. This comes with some risk however, as Carson Palmer could just get killed by halftime, and Arians, for whatever reason, won’t make any protection adjustments.
Tight End
Evan Engram (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Engram’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Engram put up a line of 6-62-0 on 11 targets (all ranked 2nd on team) at Tampa Bay last week. Engram’s fantasy points of 12.2/9.2 ranked him 7th/9th on DK/FD for the position. Engram’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/8th on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Chargers has the game total at 44.5 points with the Giants as -3.5 point home favorites. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 24 points.
Zach Ertz put up a line of 5-81-0 on 8 targets at Los Angeles last week. The Chargers rank 8th DVP against TEs.
Engram ranks 2nd (tied with Gronkowski) in the league in TE targets (30) and 3rd (tied with Witten) in TE receptions (19). Engram’s matchup isn’t great but, he is involved in the offense as his targets and catches have increased every week.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. ASJ’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/7th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. ASJ put up a line of 4-46-0 on 4 targets against Jacksonville last week. ASJ’s fantasy points of 8.6/6.6 ranked him 17th/18th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Browns has the game total at 39 points with the Jets as +1 point road dogs. The Jets’ implied team total is currently at 19 points.
Cincinnati TEs combined for a 8-89-2 line on 9 targets at Cleveland last week. Cleveland ranks 31st DVP against TEs. ASJ ranks 2nd (tied) on the team in targets (10) and catches (9) since his week 3 return. The matchup doesn’t get any better and this would be the week to capitalize on a reasonable floor return.
Cameron Brate (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. Brate upcoming salary ranks him 14th/7th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Brate put up a line of 4-80-1 on 6 targets against the Giants last week. Brate’s fantasy points of 18/16 ranked him 3rd/2ndh on DK/FD for the position. Brate’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/3rd on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Patriots has the game total at 55.5 points (highest on the board) with the Bucs as +5.5 point home dogs. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 25 points while the Patriots are currently at 30.5 points.
Ed Dickson put up a line of 3-62-0 on 4 targets at New England last week. New England ranks 29th DVP against TEs. Like last season, Brate continues to be a red zone target for Winston. Brate is tied for 1st among TEs in red zone yards (29) and TDs (2). Brate is the only Tampa Bay TE to receive targets in the red zone this season.
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