.
NFL Week 5: October 6th – 10th, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some of the potential top DFS value players for week 5.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Trevor Siemian (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Siemian’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/13th on DK/FD for the position, respectively, making him a relative steal on DK.
Paxton Lynch (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. Lynch’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line with the Falcons has the game total at 47 points (5th highest on the board), with the Broncos as -5.5 point home favorites.
Siemian (non-throwing shoulder) was knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter at Tampa Bay last week, where Lynch entered in relief. Their combined line went 19/31, 218, 2:0 for a 106.7 passer rating in the 27-7 win.
Atlanta’s defense ranks last in total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to QBs, and fantasy points allowed to TEs. Atlanta also ranks last in sacks, and are the only defensive unit without an interception. Atlanta allows the 2nd most pass yards per game, 4th most points per game, and 7th most fantasy points to WRs.
Siemian’s playing status for the upcoming week is currently unknown but will most likely receive the “Questionable” tag when the first round of injury reports get released on Wednesday night. His injury status can be monitored by checking out our daily updated NFL injury report.
If using Siemian in a Thursday slate on DraftKings, and it does turn out he will not be starting, he can be swapped out for Lynch prior to game time as their salaries are identical. There is a greater risk on FanDuel as they do not have a swap-out feature, so unless Siemian happens to get in a full practice on Thursday, it would be safe to avoid Denver QBs on FanDuel for the Thursday slates.
Brian Hoyer (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Hoyer’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/33rd on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD. Hoyer posted a line of 28/36, 302, 2:0 for a passer rating of 120.1 against Detroit. Hoyer’s fantasy points of 22.78/19.78 ranked him 8th on both DK and FD. Hoyer’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/4th on DK/FD for the position, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Colts has the game total at 47.5 points (4th highest on the board), with the Bears as +4.5 point road dogs.
Indianapolis’ defense ranks 30th in points allowed, 24th against QBs, and 23rd overall. The Colts defense also ranks in the bottom-third in sacks and picks, and 2nd worst in fantasy pointed scored.
The Colts (1-3) return from London after losing to Jacksonville, and then waived CB Antonio Cromartie and ILB Sio Moore. CB Darius Butler (hamstring) is expected to return this week after missing the last two. Hoyer has a solid matchup for a cheap price, aided with an implied positive game script.
Carson Wentz (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Wentz’ upcoming salary ranks him 11th/16th on DK/FD, respectively. Wentz is coming off a bye, but in his last game he put up a line of 23/31, 301, 2:0 for a 125.9 passer rating along with 10 rush yards against Pittsburgh. His fantasy points of 24.04/21.04 ranked him 7th for the position on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line with the Lions has the game total at 46 points, with the Eagles as -3 point road favorites.
Detroit’s defense ranks 2nd worst in fantasy points allowed to QBs, passing TDs (12) given up and 6th worst in points allowed to WRs. Detroit has one pick on the season and a middling group in sacks. Philadelphia is one of four teams to yet throw a pick. With two weeks to prepare, Wentz shouldn’t have much of an issue putting up a line similar to what Hoyer did last week, with upside for more. TE Zach Ertz is expected to return this week. Ertz should add a nice bonus to Wentz’ potential outlook and his already reasonable value.
Running Back
Terrance West (BAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800, FanDuel (FD) – 6400. West’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/21st on DK/FD, respectively. West posted a line of 21-113-1 against Oakland. West’s fantasy points of 20.3/17.3 ranked him 10th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. West’s price per point efficiency ranked him first on both DK and FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Redskins has the game total at 45 points, with the Ravens as -3.5 point home favorites.
Washington’s defense ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to RBs at 26.5 per game, and 26th overall. Washington also ranks 3rd worst in rushing yards allowed and 7th most points allowed.
West has established himself as Baltimore’s two-down back, especially with the release of Justin Forsett. Fourth round rookie Kenneth Dixon (knee) is expected to make his debut and is projected to supplant Buck Allen for the passing down role. Dixon should not have any impact on West’s role, at least this week. West’s solid matchup and relative cheap price has him as a potential safe-floor play.
Jordan Howard (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 7200. Howard’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Howard posted a rush line of 23-111-0 against Detroit and 3-21-0 on 4 targets. Howard’s fantasy points of 19.2/14.7 ranked him 12th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Howard’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/10th on both DK/FD for the position, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Colts has the game total at 47.5 points (4th highest on the board), with the Bears as +4.5 point road dogs.
Indianapolis’ defense ranks 30th in points allowed, 29th against RBs, and 23rd overall. The Colts defense 14th in rush yards allowed. Howard owns the backfield in a three-down role and should be heavily involved in all facets of the offensive despite the implied negative game script. The matchup is good and as long as Chicago can manage to not get blown out early, Howard brings a volume heavy, solid floor.
LeGarrette Blount (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Blount’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/10th on DK/FD, respectively. Blount posted a rush line of 13-54-0 against Buffalo and 3-4-0 on 3 targets in the shutout loss.
The Vegas line with the Browns has the game total at 46.5 points, with the Patriots as -10.5 point (widest margin on the board) road favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 26th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 27th overall. Cleveland ranks in the bottom third in total yards and points allowed. Blount is the league’s third leading rusher. In a nutshell, Cleveland’s defense does not matchup well against New England in any facet this week.
QB Tom Brady’s suspension ends, and what happens next is basically dealer’s choice for New England. Blount does have a positive game script available to him, and it would not be surprising for Blount to pound away at whatever is left of Cleveland’s defense with New England holding a big lead. But, with the preface as always with this team, this is New England.
Wide Receiver
Sammie Coates (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Coates’ upcoming salary ranks him 61st/66th on DK/FD, respectively. Coates posted a line of 6-79-0 on 8 targets (team high) against Kansas City. Coates’ fantasy points of 13.8/10.8 ranked him 24th/30th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Jets has the game total at 48 points (tied for 2nd highest on the board), with the Steelers as -7 point home favorites.
The Jets’ defense ranks in the bottom third in fantasy points allowed to QBs, WRs, TEs, and in passing yards allowed. What the Jets do reasonably well is defend the run, where they rank 10th against RBs.
Coates ranks 2nd in receiving yards for the Steelers and 2nd in targets and catches for Steeler wide-outs. WR Eli Rogers (turf toe) has been ruled out again. Markus Wheaton and Darrius Heyward-Bey combined for a line of 2-66-2 on 2 targets last week, but a regression to the mean should have Coates with a higher upside against a weak Jets secondary that should be focused on Antonio Brown.
Eddie Royal (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. Royal’s upcoming salary ranks him 46th on both DK and FD. Royal posted a line of 7-111-1 on 7 targets (2nd on team) against Detroit. Royal’s fantasy points of 27.1/20.6 ranked him 7th on both DK and FD. Royal’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/5th on DK/FD for the position, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Colts has the game total at 47.5 points (4th highest on the board), with the Bears as +4.5 point road dogs. Indianapolis’ defense ranks 30th in points allowed, 6th against WRs, and 23rd overall.
Royal ranks 2nd on the team in yards and targets, and with WR Kevin White (ankle) having been placed on IR, could potentially see an uptick in looks in a game that projects to have a positive game script for him.
Steve Smith Sr. (BAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300, FanDuel (FD) – 6300. Smith’s upcoming salary ranks him 31st/37th on DK/FD, respectively. Smith posted a line of 8-111-1 on 11 targets (team high) against Oakland. Smith’s fantasy points of 28.1/21.1 ranked him 4th/6th on DK/FD, respectively. Smith’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/8th on DK/FD for the position, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Redskins has the game total at 45 points, with the Ravens as -3.5 point home favorites.
Washington’s defense ranks 28th in fantasy points allowed to WRs at 26.95 per game, and 26th overall. Washington gives up the 7th most points and 8th most passing yards. Smith leads the Ravens in receiving yards, targets, and receptions and has a choice matchup with a reasonable price tag.
Tight End
Cameron Brate (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Brate’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/15th on DK/FD, respectively. Brate posted a line of 5-67-0 on 8 targets (2nd on team) against Denver. Brate’s fantasy points of 11.7/9.2 ranked him 12th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Smith’s price per point efficiency ranked him 10th/12th on DK/FD for the position, respectively.
There is no Vegas line as of yet due to QB Cam Newton’s unknown playing status.
Carolina’s defense ranks 29th against TEs and 20th overall. Brate leads Tampa Bay in red zone targets with 5 and has scored two TDs, both within the 10 yard line. If Tampa Bay can get in the red zone, Brate could potentially get his shots and comes with a cheap price tag.
Zach Ertz (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Ertz’ upcoming salary ranks him 12th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Ertz (ribs) is expected to return after missing the past two games.
The Vegas line with the Lions has the game total at 46 points, with the Eagles as -3 point road favorites.
Detroit’s defense ranks 2nd worst in fantasy points allowed to TEs. Ertz has a prime matchup and should bring a solid floor, barring any setbacks.
Check out the Week 5 DST value picks here.
Check out the Week 5 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
Submit your review | |
