NFL Week 4: September 28 – October 2, 2017
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 4.
Salary ranks are based on the full slate.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 7300. Watson’s upcoming salary ranks him 30th/19th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Watson recorded a 22/33, 301, 2:2 line and 8-41-0 on the ground at New England. Watson’s fantasy points of 25.14/22.14 ranked him 10th/13th for QBs on DK/FD. Watson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/11th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Titans has the game total at 44 points with the Texans as +1.5 point home dogs. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 21.25 points.
Tennessee ranks 30th DVP against QBs and 29th DVP against WRs. Russell Wilson lit up Tennessee with a line of 29/49, 373, 4:0 and 7-26-0 on the ground for the 2nd most fantasy points for QBs last week. Watson and the Texans went to New England as huge dogs but he gave New England all they could eat in the near upset. Watson has a shot as a nice upside play. There is also a chance that Will Fuller (collarbone) may make his debut this Sunday.
Trevor Siemian (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Siemian’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on DK. Siemian’s salary actually increased on FD where it dropped on DK. Siemian recorded a 24/40, 259, 0:2 line and 3-12-0 on the ground at Buffalo. Siemian’s fantasy points of 9.56 ranked him 28th for QBs on both DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Raiders has the game total at 46.5 points with the Broncos as -2.5 point home favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 24.5 points.
Kirk Cousins posted a 25/30, 365, 3:0 line against the Raiders last week. Oakland ranks 29th DVP against QBs. If Siemian can avoid some of the brain-fart decision making from last week, which he has typically avoided thus far this season, he is in a nice bounce-back spot at home against a beatable Oakland defense.
Philip Rivers (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Rivers’ upcoming salary ranks him 9th/17th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD. Rivers recorded a 20/40, 237, 0:3 line against Kansas City. Rivers’ fantasy points of 6.48 ranked him 31st for QBs on both DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Eagles has the game total at 47 points with the Chargers as -1 point home favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is at 24 points.
Philadelphia ranks 19th in DVP against QBs. Eli Manning posted a line of 35/47, 366, 3:2 at Philadelphia last week. Fletcher Cox (calf) is uncertain for Sunday, but if he isn’t, this would be a big blow to the Eagles. Philly will head west in a potential shootout matchup where Rivers should be airing it out with a much better matchup than last week.
Running Back
Dalvin Cook (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6500, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Cook’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Cook put up a line of 27-97-1 and 5-72-0 on 5 targets against Tampa Bay last week. Cook’s fantasy points of 27.9/25.4 ranked him 5th/4th on DK/FD for the position.
No Vegas line available yet as Sam Bradford status currently unknown.
Detroit ranks 20th in DVP against RBs. Atlanta RBs put up a combined line of 27-152-1 (5.63 avg.) and 6-75-0 on 8 targets. Cook’s matchup and workhorse opportunity brings with it a solid floor with upside.
Leonard Fournette (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Fournette’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Fournette put up a line of 17-59-1 and 3-21-0 on 3 targets against Baltimore last week. Fournette’s fantasy points of 17/15.5 ranked him 13th on both DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Jets has the game total at 39.5 points with the Jaguars as -3.5 point road favorites. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 21.5 points.
The Jets’ defense rank 26th in DVP against RBs. Fournette has scored a TD in every game this season against tougher competition. This trend should continue as the game script and workload should continue to be heavy.
Joe Mixon (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Mixon’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/37th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on FD. Mixon put up a line of 18-62-0 and 3-39-0 on 3 targets at Green Bay last week. Mixon’s fantasy points of 13.1/11.6 ranked him 19th/21st on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Browns has the game total at 40 points with the Bengals as -3 point road favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 21.5 points.
One thing we learned about Bill Lazor taking over the OC reins, is that Mixon has been given the a major bump in workload in the backfield. Cleveland ranks 12th in DVP against RBs. If the positive game script holds, Mixon should be given ample opportunity for touches and a possible three-phase role, but risky.
Update: NT Danny Shelton (calf) is listed as questionable and missed Friday’s practice. A big plus for Mixon if Shelton is out.
Wide Receiver
Deandre Hopkins (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400, FanDuel (FD) – 7300. Sanders’ upcoming salary ranks him 16th/14th on DK/FD, respectively. Nuk put up a line of 7-76-0 on 8 targets (receptions, yards, and targets were team highs) at New England last week. Nuk’s fantasy points of 14.6/11.1 ranked him 30th/33rd on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Titans has the game total at 44 points with the Texans as +1.5 point home dogs. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 21.25 points.
Tennessee ranks 30th in DVP against WRs and 30th overall. Nuk leads the league in targets (37) and is tied for 2nd in catches (21). Doug Baldwin posted a 10-105-1 line at Tennessee last week. Nuk is in a potential blow up spot and brings a solid floor as the targets aren’t going away.
Adam Thielen (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 6400. Thielen’s upcoming salary ranks him 29th/32nd on DK/FD, respectively. Thielen put up a line of 5-98-0 on 8 targets against Tampa Bay last week. Thielen’s fantasy points of 14.8/12.3 ranked him 29th/31st on DK/FD for the position.
No Vegas line available yet as Sam Bradford status currently unknown.
Detroit ranks 19th in DVP against WRs. Thielen ranks tied for 6th in receptions (19) and 2nd in yards (299). With Stephon Diggs possibly drawing shadow coverage from Darius Slay, Thielen has the better matchup at home. He’s a solid play whether Keenum or Bradford are under center.
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Sanders’ upcoming salary ranks him 21st/22nd on DK/FD, respectively. Sanders put up a line of 7-75-0 on 15 targets (receptions and targets were team highs) against the Bills last week. Sanders’ fantasy points of 14.5/11 ranked him 32nd/34th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Raiders has the game total at 46.5 points with the Broncos as -2.5 point home favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 24.5 points.
Oakland is ranked 13th DVP against WRs. Sanders should bring a solid floor as the Raiders do not have a good matchup answer for him.
Tight End
Jared Cook (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. Cook’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Cook put up a line of 4-43-1 on 6 targets (tied for team high) against the Redskins last week. His yards and receiving TDs were both team highs. Cook’s fantasy points of 14.3/12.3 ranked him 7th/8th on DK/FD for the position. Cook’s price per point efficiency ranked him 7th on both DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Broncos has the game total at 46.5 points with the Raiders as +2.5 point road dogs. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 22 points.
Cook is tied for the team lead in receptions (13) and ranks 2nd in team targets (17) and yards (124). Denver ranks 27th in DVP against TEs. With Oakland receivers facing tough matchups, and the team facing an implied negative game script, this should turn into a tight end funnel scenario where Cook should be heavily involved against Denver’s biggest weakness.
Charles Clay (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Clay’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/14th on DK/FD, respectively. Clay put up a line of 6-39-1 on 6 targets (2nd on team) against the Broncos last week. Clay’s fantasy points of 15.9/12.9 ranked him 6th on both DK/FD for the position. Clay’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th on both DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Falcons has the game total at 48.5 points with the Bills as +8 point road dogs. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 20.25 points.
Clay leads all TEs in red zone receiving targets (5) and has two red zone TDs (tied for 1st at the position). Atlanta gave up the 7th most fantasy points to TEs last season. Expect Clay to be heavily involved along with LeSean McCoy as their workload should continue to be heavy in this one.
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