NFL Week 4: September 29th – October 3rd, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some of the potential top DFS value players for week 4.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Trevor Siemian (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Siemian’s week 3 breakout performance ended with a line of 23/35, 312, 4:0 in Cincinnati. Siemian’s fantasy points of 28.98/31.98 ranked him first on both FD and DK. Siemian’s price per point efficiency also ranked first on both sites. His upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/19th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 44 points, with the Buccaneers as +3 home dogs with an afternoon game time start.
Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 28th against QBs, 30th against WRs, and 27th overall. Tampa Bay also gives up the most points in the league at 33.7 per game. Denver’s offensive splits have trended towards a higher pass-to-run ratio for three straight weeks. It would appear that Denver is becoming more comfortable in trusting Siemian to shoulder a larger workload, especially deep, and this trend should not regress this week with a solid matchup for Denver across the board.
Kirk Cousins (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Cousins put up a 21/35, 296, 2:0 line at the Giants last weekend. Cousins’ fantasy points of 19.34 ranked him 10th/11th on FD and DK, respectively. Cousins’ price per point efficiency ranked him 10th on both sites. His upcoming salary ranks him 10th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 46 points, with the Browns as +7.5 road dogs.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 21st against QBs, 31st against WRs, 20th against TEs, 18th against RBs, and 26th overall. Cousins previously faced the New York Giants, Dallas, and Pittsburgh thus far. The negative game script is helped with Washington’s backfield ranking 29th in rushing yards against Cleveland’s strongest unit of defense.
Cleveland’s defense provides a nice paper matchup for Cousins to get things rolling. Cousins ranks 2nd in the league in passing yards. None of his usual aerial targets have potentially adverse matchups, except for possibly Pierre Garcon. Cleveland has a Football Outsiders DVOA #1 ranking against WR3s.
Matthew Stafford (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7300, FanDuel (FD) – 8300. Stafford posted a 28/41, 385, 3:1 line in Green Bay last weekend. Stafford’s fantasy points of 19.34 ranked him 10th/11th on FD and DK, respectively. Stafford’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd on both sites. His upcoming salary ranks him 4th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 47.5 points (4th highest on the board), with the Lions as -3 road favorites in Chicago.
Chicago’s defense ranks 19th against QBs, 19th against WRs, 6th against TEs, 25th against RBs, and 20th overall. Chicago also gives up the 9th most points. Chicago will be without their third defensive starter as corner Kyle Fuller (knee) has been placed on IR.
Chicago will face their toughest aerial test yet as Stafford is currently the 3rd highest scorer for the position. Stafford is currently ranked 3rd in pass yards and tied for 2nd in TDs with 7. Stafford dropped a line of 703, 7:1 against Chicago last season, taking the win in both games.
Philip Rivers (SD) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6900, FanDuel (FD) – 8500. Rivers posted a 26/39, 330, 0:0, 1 lost fumble line in Indianapolis last weekend. Rivers’ fantasy points of 11.4/15.4 ranked him 23rd/16th on FD and DK, respectively. .
The Vegas line has the game total at 53.5 points (highest on the board), with the Saints as +4 road dogs in San Diego.
New Orleans’ defense ranks 22nd against QBs, 23rd against WRs, last against RBs, and 29th overall. New Orleans also gives up the 2nd most points per game at 32. San Diego is the 3rd highest scoring team, averaging 29 points per game.
Rivers had a disappointing scoreless game in Indianapolis, but the Saints are a great remedy towards a bounce back game at home.
Update: Starters RT Joe Barksdale and LG Orlando Franklin have been listed as questionable, and LT King Dunlap has been listed as doubtful. The possibility of losing three O-Line starters could potentially cause a detrimental rippling affect across San Diego’s offense.
Running Back
LeGarrette Blount (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Blount’s week 3 against Houston had him posting a 24-105-2 rush line. Blount’s fantasy points of 22.5/25.5 ranked him 8th/9th on FD and DK, respectively. Blount’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th on both sites. His upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas spread has the Patriots as -4.5 point home favorites against Buffalo. There is no Vegas game total as of yet due to the unknown injury status of QBs Jimmy Garappolo and Jacoby Brissett.
Buffalo’s defense ranks 23rd against RBs, and 16th overall. Buffalo is a middling group in rush yards and points allowed and bottom-third in pass yards allowed. Buffalo has a DVOA rank of 23rd against the run. Blount leads the league in rush yards and carries. Blount is also tied for the league lead in rushing TDs with 4 and ranks 6th in red zone rush attempts. New England ranks 7th in time of possession.
Regardless of who ends up starting at QB for New England, Blount’s role as the two-down, time-killing hammer shouldn’t be affected. He provides one of the safest floors at the position with multi-TD upside, however, this is New England.
Melvin Gordon (SD) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Gordon’s week 3 at Indianapolis had him posting a 16-35-1 rush line and 4-43-0 on 7 targets (tied for 2nd on team). Gordon’s fantasy points of 15.8/17.8 ranked him 15th on both FD and DK. Gordon’s price per point efficiency ranked him 18th/21st on FD/DK, respectively. His upcoming salary ranks him 7th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 53.5 points (highest on the board), with the Saints as +4 road dogs in San Diego.
New Orleans’ defense ranks last against RBs, and 29th overall. New Orleans also gives up the 2nd most points per game at 32. San Diego is the 3rd highest scoring team, averaging 29 points per game. Gordon is tied for first in rushing TDs with 4 and has at least one in each game. Gordon ranks 2nd in red zone rush attempts.
Gordon has an implied positive game script and should be in line for another heavy snap count and touch total.
Carlos Hyde (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. Hyde’s week 3 at Seattle had him dropping a 21-103-2 rush line and 1-2-0 on 1 target. Hyde’s fantasy points of 25/28.5 ranked him 4th/5th on FD and DK, respectively. Hyde’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd on both FD and DK. His upcoming salary ranks him 34th/17th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better value on DraftKings.
The Vegas line has the game total at 45.5 points, with the Cowboys as -2.5 point favorites in San Francisco.
Dallas’ defense ranks 11th against RBs and 17th overall. Hyde is tied for first in rushing TDs with 4 and ranks 7th in carries and 11th in rush yards. Hyde ranks 1st in red zone rush attempts. Hyde has faced Seattle, Carolina, and Los Angeles thus far. This game potentially has the making of a ground and pound slugfest and Hyde should be kept in the mix as San Francisco has few offensive options outside of him.
Wide Receiver
Marvin Jones (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7300, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Jones’ week 3 at Green Bay had him recording a 5-205-2 line on 8 targets. Jones’ fantasy points of 35.5/41.5 ranked him 1st on both FD and DK for WRs. Jones’ price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/3rd on both FD/DK, respectively. His upcoming salary ranks him 13th/11th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 47.5 points (4th highest on the board), with the Lions as -3 road favorites in Chicago.
Chicago’s defense ranks 19th against WRs, and 20th overall. Jones leads the league in receiving yards and gets to face a thin secondary hampered with injuries.
Jameson Crowder (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Crowder’s week 3 at New York had him recording a 4-78-1 line on 8 targets. Crowder’s fantasy points of 15.8/17.8 ranked him 16th/19th on FD/DK, respectively. Crowder’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/3rd on both FD/DK, respectively. His upcoming salary ranks him 9th/10th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 46 points, with the Browns as +7.5 road dogs.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 31st against WRs, and 26th overall. Crowder ranks tied for first in red zone targets and has 2 of 3 of Kirk Cousins’ TDs. Crowder has an appealing matchup and brings a solid floor with TD upside potential.
Tight End
Hunter Henry (SD) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Henry’s week 3 at Indianapolis had him recording a 5-72-0 line on 5 targets with a lost fumble. Henry’s fantasy points of 8.1/11.6 ranked him 12th on both FD and DK. Henry’s price per point efficiency ranked him 10tht/8th on FD/DK, respectively. His upcoming salary ranks him 25th and tied for last on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 53.5 points (highest on the board), with the Saints as +4 road dogs in San Diego.
New Orleans’ defense ranks 7th against TEs and 29th overall. New Orleans has a DVOA rank of 15th against TEs. Henry’s workload has been trending up and with Antonio Gates out, he is the San Diego TE1. Henry could potentially get in on the gumbo action with a bottom-barreled price tag.
Zach Miller (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 5000. Miller’s week 3 at Dallas had him posting an 8-78-2 line on 9 targets (2nd highest on team). Miller’s fantasy points of 23.8/27.8 ranked him 1st on both FD and DK. Miller’s price per point efficiency ranked him first on both FD and DK. His upcoming salary ranks him 23rd on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line has the game total at 47.5 points (4th highest on the board), with the Lions as -3 road favorites in Chicago.
Detroit’s defense ranks last against TEs and 31st overall. Miller’s two red zone TDs are tied for first for TEs. With Brian Hoyer expected to start again and an implied positive game script, Miller has potential for a solid floor with TD upside at a cheap cost.
Check out the Week 4 DST value picks here.
Check out the Week 4 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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