NFL Week 3: September 21 – 25, 2017
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 3.
Salary ranks are based on the full slate.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6200, FanDuel (FD) – 7900. Stafford’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Stafford recorded a 15/21, 122, 2:0 line and 3-23-0 with one lost fumble at the New York Giants. Stafford’s fantasy points of 14.18/13.18 ranked him 18th highest for QBs on both DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Falcons has the game total at 50.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Lions as +3 point home dogs. The Lions’ implied team total is at 23.75 points.
Atlanta ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed to QBs (15.52) and 17th in DVOA against the pass.
Stafford currently ranks 6th for QBs in fantasy points scored and tied for first in passing TDs (6 w/ Siemian). Stafford will be in the home dome, and this one has shootout potential, if the game script favors Atlanta early.
Trevor Siemian (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Siemian’s upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/16th on DK/FD, respectively. Siemian recorded a 22/32, 231, 4:1 line and 5-14-0 on the ground with one lost fumble against Dallas. Siemian’s fantasy points of 24.64/23.64 ranked him 4th/3rd highest for QBs on DK/FD. His price per point efficiency ranked him 1st for QBs on both DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Bills has the game total at 40 points with the Broncos as -3 point road favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is at 21.5 points.
Buffalo ranks 9th in fantasy points allowed to QBs (10.65) and 5th in DVOA against the pass this season, albeit one of these games was against the Jets.
Siemian currently ranks 3rd in fantasy points for QBs, and leads the league in total touchdowns (6 pass, 1 rush, all red zone scores). Siemian also leads the league in red zone completions (10), red zone pass yards (78) and TDs, and red zone rush attempts (4). His red zone fantasy scoring (34.72) is nearly double of the next QB (Carr). Thus far in the young season, Siemian is the new Mariota.
Philip Rivers (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Rivers’ upcoming salary ranks him 7th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Rivers recorded a 31/39, 331, 1:0 line against Miami. Rivers’ fantasy points of 20.24/17.24 ranked him 7th/10th highest for QBs on both DK/FD. His price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/7th for QBs on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Chiefs has the game total at 47.5 points (3rd highest on the board) with the Chargers as +3 point home dogs. The Chargers’ implied team total is at 23.75 points.
The Chiefs give up the 6th most points to QBs (17.75) and rank 11th in DVOA against the pass. Carson Wentz dropped a 25/46, 333, 2:1 line in Kansas City’s house last week, albeit, Wentz should’ve had a second pick, which turned into a 53 yard bomb to Ertz. Rivers should bring a decent floor.
Running Back
Carlos Hyde (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 6600. Hyde’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/17th on DK/FD, respectively. Hyde put up a line of 15-124-0 and 3-19-0 on 6 targets against the Seahawks last week. Hyde’s fantasy points of 20.3/15.8 ranked him 9th/10th on DK/FD for the position. Hyde’s price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/10th on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Rams has the game total at 39.5 points with the Niners as +2.5 point home dogs. The Niners’ implied team total is at 18.5 points.
The Rams give up the 5th most fantasy points to RBs (30.05). The Rams gave up a combined 36-222-2 (6.16 avg.) rushing line to Washington RBs last week. Hyde will have a much easier matchup this week as the three-phase workhorse, however, San Francisco has yet to score a TD on the season.
CJ Anderson (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Anderson’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Anderson put up a line of 25-118-1 and 3-36-1 on 3 targets against the Cowboys last week. Anderson’s fantasy points of 33.4/28.9 ranked him 1st on both DK/FD for the position. Anderson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/2nd on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Bills has the game total at 40 points with the Broncos as -3 point road favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is at 21.5 points.
Buffalo, this season, ranks 3rd against RBs in fantasy points allowed (7.95) and rank 7th in DVOA against the run. The matchup isn’t ideal, but the workload and positive game script is. Anderson ranks 5th in snaps for RBs, 2nd in red zone rush attempts, and 1st in red zone receiving yards for the position. If the game script holds, and it should since it is hard to fathom how Buffalo scores points against this defense, Anderson should be the focal point of this one.
Isaiah Crowell (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800, FanDuel (FD) – 6600. Crowell’s upcoming salary ranks him 29th/17th on DK/FD, respectively. Crowell put up a line of 10-37-0 and did not bring in his lone target against the Ravens last week. Crowell’s fantasy points of 3.7 ranked him 59th/54th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Colts has the game total at 40.5 points with the Browns as -1.5 point road favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is at 21 points.
This is one of those rare occasions where the Browns will actually be favored. Crowell has faced a brutal schedule and negative game script the first two weeks, but will now have this scenario reversed. The Colts rank 13th in fantasy points allowed to RBs (16.1) and have largely been a pass-funnel team, due to weaknesses in this area as well.
Cleveland has depth issues at wide-out, and the best way for Hue Jackson to protect his rookie QB, would be to ground-and-pound with Crowell with a lead. This will be the week Crowell’s workload should bring a safe floor and he’s cheap.
Christian McCaffrey (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. McCaffrey’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/12th on DK/FD, respectively. McCaffrey put up a line of 8-10-0 and 4-34-0 on 5 target against the Bills last week. McCaffrey’s fantasy points of 8.4/6.4 ranked him 33rd/37th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Saints has the game total at 46.5 points with the Panthers as -5.5 point home favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is at 26 points.
New Orleans ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs (27.0), last against the pass in DVOA, and 29th DVOA against RBs in the pass. New Orleans gave up a combined receiving line to New England RBs of 13-143-1. The potential matchup should favor McCaffrey.
New England specifically targeted Saints rookie LB Alex Anzelone on 2 of 3 of Brady’s touchdowns. In both instances, this occurred when Anzelone was matched up in man coverage against Burkhead and then Gronkowski. If Riverboat Ron can get McCaffrey to line up across Anzelone in man coverage, he should smoke him. Greg Olsen (I.R.) is out. Cam Newton can go all “Jamarcus” with the accuracy, but the potential opportunities should be there. If McCaffrey is going to get his break out game, this one should be it.
Wide Receiver
Jarvis Landry (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6800, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 13th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively. Landry put up a line of 13-78-0 on 15 targets (receptions and targets were team highs) against the Chargers last week. Landry’s fantasy points of 20.1/13.6 ranked him 10th/15th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Jets has the game total at 42.5 points with the Dolphins as -6 point road favorites. The Dolphins’ implied team total is at 24.25 points.
The Jets rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and avg. 28th against WR1s and WR2s. Landry and DeVante Parker have solid matchups against a tanking Jets team. Denver shouldn’t have issues dealing with the Jets’ defense, and it appears Cutler and Landry have developed a rapport after their first game.
Jamison Crowder (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Crowder’s upcoming salary ranks him 39th/51st on DK/FD, respectively. Crowder put up a line of 4-47-0 on 5 targets against the Rams last week. Crowder’s fantasy points of 8.7/6.7 ranked him 47th/49th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Raiders has the game total at 54 points (highest on the board) with the Redskins as +3 point home dogs. The Redskins’ implied team total is at 25.5 points.
The Raiders’ defense currently ranks 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 21st in DVOA against WR2s. The Raiders’ typically struggle against smaller, quick receivers. With Jordan Reed (chest, broken toe) currently questionable, Crowder’s opportunities should bring him a relatively high floor if Reed were to miss time, especially if the game script holds.
Tight End
Martellus Bennett (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Bennett’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Bennett put up a line of 5-47-0 on 11 targets (team high) against the Falcons last week. Bennett’s fantasy points of 9.7/7.2 ranked him 17th/18th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Bengals has the game total at 44.5 points with the Packers as -9 point home favorites. The Packers’ implied team total is at 26.75 points.
The Bengals ranked 3rd worst against TEs last season in fantasy points allowed (16.27). Their current #1 ranking against TEs is misleading as Cincinnati only had three TE targets against them in week 1 (Ravens) and 0 targets in week 2 (Texans).
This season, Bennett ranks 2nd for TEs in snaps played (129), tied for third (with Kelce) in TE targets (17), and tied for 10th in receptions (8). With Jordy Nelson (quad) and Randall Cobb (chest) questionable at this point, Bennett’s opportunities may remain high with a solid matchup.
Update: Nelson (Questionable) is currently expected to play and Cobb listed as Doubtful.
Jack Doyle (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Doyle’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th on both DK/FD. Doyle put up a line of 8-79-0 on 8 targets against the Cardinals last week. His catches and yards were both team highs. Doyle’s fantasy points of 15.9/11.9 ranked him 6th/9th on DK/FD for the position. Doyle’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/9th on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Browns has the game total at 40.5 points with the Colts as +1 point home dogs. The Colts’ implied team total is at 19.75 points.
Cleveland gave up a combined line to Baltimore tight ends of 13-121-0 last week and currently rank 2nd worst against tight ends, allowing an avg. of 23.7 fantasy points to the position thus far in the young season. Cleveland ranked 2nd worst against tight ends in fantasy points allowed (17.2) last season, so thus far, little has changed.
Jacoby Brissett, making his first start for the Colts, had his best success targeting Doyle last week, and may lean on him again with a solid matchup.
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