NFL Week 3: September 22nd – 26th, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some of the potential top DFS value players for week 3.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Marcus Mariotta (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Mariotta put up a 25/33, 238, 2:1 line in Detroit last weekend. Mariotta’s fantasy points of 17.72 ranked him 19th on both DK and FD. Mariotta’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/19th on FD and DK, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK.
Currently, the Vegas line has the game total at 47 points, with the Raiders as +1.5 road dogs with an early game time start.
The Raiders “defense” ranks last in the league in yards allowed, passing yards allowed, against QBs, and against WRs. Oakland also ranks 2nd to last in points allowed and 29th against TEs. Oakland’s defense has faced New Orleans and Atlanta thus far, giving up the 2nd highest QB score both weeks. Mariotta and his air weapons have one of the top matchups, if not the top matchup, across the board.
Update – TE Delanie Walker (hamstring) will be a game-time decision. The Raiders are now -1 point favorites.
Ryan Tannehill (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6200, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Tannehill recorded a 32/45, 389, 2:2 line and 6-35-0 on the ground in New England last weekend. Tannehill’s fantasy points of 25.06/28.06 ranked him 4th/3rd on FD/DK, respectively. Tannehill’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st for the position on both sites. His upcoming salary ranks him 15th/19th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 41.5 points, with the Dolphins as -9.5 point home favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 23rd overall, 20th against QBs, and 24th against both WRs and TEs. Cleveland’s starting QB is projected to be third round rookie Cody Kessler (no NFL snaps), in place of Josh McCown. Miami will be without RB Arian Foster, who will be replaced with the tandem of Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake. The negative game script is helped with the absence of Foster and with Cleveland’s middling run defense.
Philip Rivers (SD) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Rivers put up a 17/24, 220, 4:0 line against Jacksonville last week. Rivers’ fantasy points of 23.8/24.8 ranked him 7th for the position on both FD/DK, respectively. Rivers’ price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/8th on FD/DK, respectively. Rivers’ upcoming salary ranks him 11th/12th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 51.5 points (2nd highest on the board), with Indianapolis as -3 point favorites at home.
Indianapolis’ defense ranks 22nd against QBs, and 27th overall. Indianapolis also gives up the most points and 3rd most passing yards and total yards. Football Outsiders ranks the Colts’ pass defense 2nd worst. If the positive game script holds for Rivers, he brings a solid floor in a game with high-scoring potential.
Update TE Antonio Gates (hamstring) is listed as doubtful and is expected to miss this game. Hunter Henry is the next man up.
Matt Ryan (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7400, FanDuel (FD) – 8500. Ryan put up a 26/34, 396, 3:1 line in Oakland last week. Ryan’s fantasy points of 28.84/31.84 ranked him second for the position on both FD/DK, respectively. Ryan’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/4th on DK/FD, respectively.
Ryan is the top fantasy scorer for the position through two weeks. His upcoming salary ranks him 5th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 54 points (highest on the board), with New Orleans as -3 point favorites at home on Monday night.
New Orleans’ defense ranks 18th against QBs, 26th against WRs, and 22nd overall. The Saints’ defense gives up the 2nd most total yards and 3rd most passing yards. Ryan posted 629 passing yards and 4:1 TD:INTs against New Orleans last season. If the game script holds, Ryan should have his opportunities in a plausible shootout scenario.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon (SD) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 7100. Gordon’s week 2 against Jacksonville had him 1st in team touches with 27 with a 24-102-1 rush line, and 3-18-0 on 3 targets. Gordon’s fantasy points of 19.5/24 ranked him 5th/4th on FD/DK, respectively. Gordon’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/6th on FD/DK, respectively. Gordon’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/13th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 51.5 points (2nd highest on the board), with Indianapolis as -3 point favorites at home.
Indianapolis’ defense ranks last against RBs, and 27th overall. Indianapolis also gives up the 4th most rushing yards. Football Outsiders ranks the Colts’ rush defense 2nd worst.
Danny Woodhead (ACL) is out for the season, and Gordon, at least in the short-term, becomes a potential three-down back in a great matchup. The Chargers signed FA Dexter McCluster to fill Woodhead’s third-down role and is expected to be active. McCluster is familiar with OC Ken Whisenhunt’s system having spent the previous two years under him, but his immediate potential usage is an unknown.
Charles Sims (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 6300. Sims’ week 2 at Arizona had him 1st in team touches with 12 with a 9-24-0 rush line, and 3-4-0 on 5 targets. Sims’ upcoming salary ranks him 31st/27th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 42 points (4th lowest on the board), with Tampa Bay as -5.5 point favorites at home against Los Angeles.
The Rams’ defense ranks 20th against RBs and 5th overall. Football Outsiders has the Rams’ rush defense ranked 12th. Doug Martin (hamstring) is projected to be out for a few weeks, leaving Sims as the all-purpose, injury replacement play at a cheap cost. The matchup isn’t great but everything about the game script is.
DeMarco Murray (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Murray’s week 2 at Detroit had him 1st in team touches with 19 with a 12-89-0 rush line, and 7-56-0 on 7 targets. His 7 targets tied for highest on the team last week. Murray’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/10th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 47 points, with Tennessee as -1.5 point favorites at home against Oakland.
The Raiders rank 22nd against RBs and last overall. The game script and matchup are positive for Murray who should see a heavy usage rate as Tennessee’s three-down back in this game.
Wide Receiver
Jarvis Landry (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6600, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Landry’s week 2 at New England had him 1st in team touches with a 10-137-0 receiving line on 13 targets (tied for team high), with a lost fumble. Landry’s fantasy points of 16.7/25.7 ranked him 5th/4th on FD/DK, respectively. Landry’s price per point efficiency ranked him 11th/22nd on FD/DK, respectively. Landry’s upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/21st on FD/DK, respectively.
DeVante Parker (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Parker’s week 2 at New England had him 2nd in team touches with an 8-106-0 receiving line on 13 targets (tied for team high). Parker’s fantasy points of 14.6/21.6 ranked him 19th/12th on FD/DK, respectively. Parker’s price per point efficiency ranked him 15th/10th on FD/DK, respectively. Parker’s upcoming salary ranks him 44th/41st on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 41.5 points, with the Dolphins as -9.5 point home favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 24th against WRs and 23rd overall. The negative game script is helped with Miami’s lack of a rushing attack and the optimal mode of attack would be against Cleveland’s vulnerable secondary in a solid matchup where Landry and Parker dominate targets for Miami. Landry offers the better floor than Parker and Parker provides potential for a better value than Landry.
Marvin Jones (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6200, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Jones’ week 2 against Tennessee had him with an 8-118-0 receiving line on 11 targets (team high). Jones’ fantasy points of 15.8/22.8 ranked him 15th/9th on FD/DK, respectively. Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 25th/26th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 48 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Packers as -7.5 point home favorites.
Green Bay’s defense is ranked 18th against WRs and 14th overall. Ameer Abdullah (foot) has been placed on IR, plus if the positive game script holds, Stafford should rack up a lot of attempts and his WR1 should be plenty busy in this pass-first offense.
Tight End
Jacob Tamme (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Tamme’s week 2 at Oakland had him with a 5-75-1 receiving line on 8 targets (team high). Tamme’s fantasy points of 16/18.5 ranked him 4th/5th on FD/DK, respectively. Tamme’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both FD/DK. Tamme’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/16th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 54 points (highest on the board), with the Saints as -3 point home favorites.
New Orleans defense ranks 6th against TEs and 22nd overall. Football Outsiders has New Orleans’ pass defense ranked 26th. Tamme is averaging 8 targets per game and has a solid matchup with shoot-out potential with a reasonable price tag.
Dennis Pitta (BAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 4800. Pitta’s week 2 against Cleveland had him with a 9-102-0 receiving line on 12 targets (team high). Pitta’s fantasy points of 14.7/22.2 ranked him 5th/3rd on FD/DK, respectively. Pitta’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/1st on both FD/DK, respectively. Pitta’s upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/14th on FD/DK, respectively, making him a better value on FD.
The Vegas line has the game total at 47 points, with the Ravens as -1 point road favorites.
Jacksonville’s defense ranks 13th against TEs and 26th overall. Football Outsiders has Jacksonville ranked 19th against TEs. The receiving tight end looks to be healthy for the first time in over three years. If he can stay on the field, he may resume his former status as one of Flacco’s favorite targets.
Check out the Week 3 DST value picks here.
Check out the Week 3 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
Submit your review | |
