NFL Week 2: September 14th – 18th, 2017
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 2.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
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Quarterback
Philip Rivers (LAC) – Salaries: DK – 5800, FD – 7800. Rivers’ upcoming salary ranks him 15th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively. Rivers recorded a 22/33, 192, 3:1 line at Denver. Rivers’ fantasy points of 18.68 ranked him 13th/10th highest for QBs on DK/FD. His price per point efficiency ranked him 8th/11th for QBs on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Dolphins has the game total at 45 points with the Chargers as -4.5 point home favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is at 24.75 points.
Rivers has a positive implied script and a much better matchup this week against a Miami defense that gave up the 3rd most fantasy points (19.03) to QBs last season and ranked 16th against the pass in DVOA. Miami gave up the 2nd most 3+ passing TDs last season with 7 (Cleveland ranked 1st with 8). Rivers should have a solid floor with a good chance of outperforming his cheap price point.
Alex Smith (KC) – Salaries: DK – 5700, FD – 7200. Smith’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th on both DK/FD. Smith recorded a 28/35, 368, 4:0 line at New England. Smith’s fantasy points of 34.02/31.02 ranked him 1st for QBs on DK/FD. His price per point efficiency also ranked him 1st for QBs on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Eagles has the game total at 47.5 points with the Chiefs as -4.5 point home favorites. Kansas City’s implied team total is at 26 points.
The Eagles lost their CB1 Ronald Darby (ankle) for several weeks which bodes well for Smith and Tyreek Hill. Despite the blow up game as a +9 point dog in New England, Smith’s salary only slightly ticked up this week, and now he gets a positive implied script at home. It seems like the DFS site algorithms don’t respect Smith either, LOL.
However, we may see a different kind of Alex Smith this season. After the Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes II with the 10th pick last April as the heir apparent, the writings on the wall for Smith and he may be heavily inclined to shift gears from his game manager mode into a do-or-die attitude. If the Mahomes situation can’t light a fire under his glutes, perhaps nothing can, but Smith has value while the algorithms still disrespect him.
After implementing an impressive scheme against Belichick on Thursday night, Andy Reid, with the extra long week to scheme for Philly, should have the Chiefs once again well prepared.
Running Back
Ty Montgomery (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Montgomery’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/20th on DK/FD, respectively. Montgomery put up a line of 19-54-1 and 4-39-0 on 4 targets against Seattle last week. Montgomery’s fantasy points of 19.3/17.3 ranked him 9th/7th on DK/FD for the position. Montgomery’s price per point efficiency ranked him 10th/5th on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Falcons has the game total at 53.5 points (second highest on the board) with the Packers as +2.5 point road dogs. Green Bay’s implied team total is at 25.5 points. This game should be loaded with the Sunday night hammers.
Is TyMont a real RB? Will his role by impacted by 4th round rookie Jamaal Williams? Looks like those questions were answered in full against Seattle. Montgomery led the league in RB snaps last week with 74, 10 more than the next back. Williams had 6 snaps along with 2 carries, and was the only other Green Bay back to see any.
Montgomery gets a much better matchup in a projected shootout against Atlanta, who ranked 28th against the rush and 25th against receiving backs in DVOA last season. Atlanta also gave up the 4th most fantasy points (26.42) to RBs last season.
Atlanta gave up a rush line of 19-125-1 for 6.6 avg. to Chicago backs last week, as well as a combined aerial line of 11-61-1 to Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard.
Marshawn Lynch (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7200. Lynch’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Lynch put up a line of 18-76-0 and 1-16-0 on 2 targets at Tennessee last week. Lynch’s fantasy points of 10.2/9.7 ranked him 23rd/20th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Jets has the game total at 43.5 points with the Raiders as -14 point home favorites (widest spread on the board). Oakland’s implied team total is at 28.75 points (second highest on the board).
There was offseason speculation as to what the 31 year old back had left in the tank. We didn’t have to wait long for an answer, as BeastMode went ham and trucked through 305 lb. DT Jurrell Casey, before plowing into second level backers.
Oakland should have their way in their home opener against the tanking Jets. The Raiders have a lot of weapons to blow this one up, but it would not be surprising at all if BlackJack allowed BeastMode to put on a show for his hometown fans. Pencil him as a safe floor play with 100 scrimmage yards and at least 1 TD before possibly getting spelled late.
Jacquizz Rodgers (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400, FanDuel (FD) – 6600. Rodgers’ upcoming salary ranks him 36th/17th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on DK. Tampa Bay was forced into a week 1 bye due to #Irma.
The Vegas line with the Bears has the game total at 43 points with the Bucs as -7 point home favorites. Tampa Bay’s implied team total is at 25 points (tied for 3rd highest on the board).
Although the matchup isn’t great against Chicago’s tough front-seven, limiting his ceiling, Quizz is slightly mispriced on DK, but he may lose some passing downs to Charles Sims. Bears’ ILB Jerrell Freeman (pec) has been placed on I.R. which adds an uptick here. Quizz should provide a solid floor with volume in a positive game script. A recommend as a cheap DK cash play.
Tarik Cohen (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Cohen’s upcoming salary ranks him 45th/47th on DK/FD, respectively. Cohen put up a line of 5-66-0 (led team in rush yards) and 8-47-1 on 12 targets (all team highs) against Atlanta last week. Cohen’s fantasy points of 25.3/21.3 ranked him 2nd/3rd on DK/FD for the position. Cohen’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line with Tampa Bay has the game total at 43 points with the Bears as +7 point road dogs. Chicago’s implied team total is at 18 points.
Cameron Meredith, Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, and Kevin White combined for 269 of Chicago’s 559 targets last season (48%). They are all gone. White (broken scapula) was placed on I.R. after going down in the 4th quarter last week. He was one of four receivers to get targets.
With new addition Markus Wheaton (broken finger) missing week 1 and his status currently unknown at this time for week 2, there’s simply a lack of depth and talent at the receiver position.
The diminutive Cohen looks like a young Darren Sproles, and his role should expand even more so now. He should get the volume for a safe floor with a good chance of well outperforming his current price point.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Kupp’s upcoming salary ranks him 53rd/61st on DK/FD, respectively. Kupp put up a line of 4-76-1 on 6 targets against the Colts last week. Kupp’s fantasy points of 17.6/15.6 ranked him 6th/9th on DK/FD for the position. Kupp’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line with Washington has the game total at 46 points with the Rams as -2.5 point home favorites. The Rams’ implied team total is at 24.25 points.
Kupp had an impressive preseason, and it appears this has carried over into real football without a hitch. Kupp’s receiving yards, score, and targets were all team highs. Sammy Watkins should be the one to draw Josh Norman coverage and Washington ranked in the bottom third in DVOA against WRs 1-3 last season and 24th overall against the pass.
Kupp should have a stable floor, albeit a limited ceiling. Keep in mind, this is the Rams and last week’s competition was not a true gauge. Kupp’s salary looks to be still underweight as it has hardly moved heading into week 2. This may not last in future weeks if the 2nd round rookie continues this level of base production, so get in on the value before the DFS algorithms adjust.
Keenan Allen (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 7100. Allen’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/17th on DK/FD, respectively. Allen put up a line of 5-35-1 on 10 targets (team high) against the Broncos last week. Allen’s fantasy points of 14.5/12 ranked him 17th/19th on DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Dolphins has the game total at 45 points with the Chargers as -4.5 point home favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is at 24.75 points.
Last season, Miami’s defense gave up the 10th most fantasy points to WRs (36.91) and ranked 16th in DVOA against the pass. Allen had an unsurprising middling start last week against the No-FLy-Zone as road dogs, but gets an easier matchup at home. Allen got a $300 price drop on DK from last week, making him a decent value this week.
Adam Thielen (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Thielen’s upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/47th on DK/FD, respectively. Thielen put up a line of 9-157-0 on 10 targets (team high) against the Saints last week. Thielen’s fantasy points of 27.7/20.2 ranked him 3rd/5th on DK/FD for the position. Thielen’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/7th on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Steelers has the game total at 45.5 points with the Vikings as +5.5 point road dogs. The Vikings’ implied team total is at 20 points.
The matchup isn’t great as the Steelers ranked 6th in fantasy points allowed to receivers and ranked 12th in DVOA against the pass last season, but his volume should provide a solid floor, especially if the game script holds.
Tight End
Charles Clay (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Clay’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/20th on DK/FD, respectively. Clay put up a line of 4-53-1 on 9 targets (team high) against the Jets last week. Clay’s fantasy points of 15.3/13.3 ranked him 6th on both DK/FD for the position. Clay’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/3rd on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Panthers has the game total at 43 points with the Bills as +7 point road dogs. The Bills ‘ implied team total is at 18 points.
Carolina gave up the 6th most fantasy points to TEs (15.10) but ranked 9th in DVOA against the position last year. Shady and Clay should continue to be Tyrod Taylor’s most trusted targets. Clay had 3 red zone targets, converting one for a score.
Jared Cook (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Cook’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/20th on DK/FD, respectively. Cook put up a line of 5-56-0 on 5 targets against the Titans last week. Cook’s fantasy points of 15.3/13.3 ranked him 6th on both DK/FD for the position. Cook’s price per point efficiency ranked him 10th/9th on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Jets has the game total at 43.5 points with the Raiders as -14 point home favorites (widest spread on the board). Oakland’s implied team total is at 28.75 points (second highest on the board).
Cook’s target total, despite the low volume, ranked 3rd behind Cooper and Crabtree. All the Raider skill players have a nice opportunity to partake in the fun in this one.
Coby Fleener (NO) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Fleener’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/14th on DK/FD, respectively. Fleener put up a line of 5-54-1 on 6 targets against the Vikings last week. Fleener’s fantasy points of 16.4/13.9 ranked him 5th/4th on DK/FD for the position. Fleener’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/6th on DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Patriots has the game total at 55.5 points (highest on the board) with the Saints as +6.5 point home dogs. New Orleans’ implied team total is at 24.5 points.
New England ranked 22nd against the pass and 14th against TEs in DVOA last season. Brees spreads the ball around, and he may need to air it out in this one at NFL’s Coors Field, especially if the game script holds. Of the New Orleans’ receiving options, Fleener would probably be the lowest priority focus of the Patriots’ defense. Fleener is a cheap avenue to get some exposure to this game.
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