NFL Week 2: September 15th – 19th, 2016
We’ll provide insights and review some of the potential top DFS value players for week 2.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Eli Manning (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7600, FanDuel (FD) – 8100. Eli put up a 19/28, 207, 3:1 line in Dallas last weekend. Manning’s fantasy points of 19.28 ranked him 11th/12th on FD/DK, respectively.
Manning deserves a nod here since he is the QB that gets to face the New Orleans defense this week at home. The Saints were lit up for 35 points by Oakland in the dome loss.
Derek Carr tossed up 319 yards on 38 attempts against New Orleans last weekend, and Eli could easily do the same, especially with a deeper receiving corps than the Raiders field. New Orleans’ top corner, Delvin Breaux suffered a broken leg last weekend, adding to the already susceptibility of the New Orleans pass defense.
Currently, the Vegas line has the game total at 53 points (highest on the board) with the Giants as -4.5 favorites.
Manning’s salary ranks him 5th/9th highest for QBs on DK/FD, respectively. Manning and his receiving crew of Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Sharpe, and Victor Cruz have a nice potential high-scoring shootout awaiting them.
Matthew Stafford (Det) – Salaries: DK – 7300, FD – 7800. Stafford recorded a 31/39, 340, 3:0 line on the road against Indianapolis. Stafford’s points of 29.1/26.1 ranked him 4th/5th highest for QBs on DK/FD, respectively. His price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/6th for QBs on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total at 47 points with the Lions as -5.5 favorites at home. Tennessee gave up the 5th most fantasy points to QBs last season.
Stafford’s salary ranks him 8th/12th on DK/FD, respectively, yet he has a good shot to record a top 5 finish.
Tennessee’s rush defense was ranked the 4th toughest against RBs in fantasy points allowed last season, and held Adrian Peterson to a line of 19-31-0 with a 1.6 avg. last weekend. Detroit should potentially do the majority of their damage through the air. The positive matchup should provide Stafford a solid floor and potentially high ceiling.
Derek Carr (Oak) – Salaries: DK – 7200, FD – 8300. Carr logged a 24/38, 319, 1:0 line at New Orleans. Carr’s points of 25.36/22.36 ranked him 8th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Carr’s price per point efficiency ranked him 8th on both DK and FD.
Carr’s salary ranks him 6th/9th on FD/DK, respectively. Atlanta’s defense yielded 26.5 points to Jameis Winston last weekend, which averaged in the top 5 highest for QBs.
The Vegas line has the game total at 49.5 (3rd highest on the board) with the Raiders as -4.5 home favorites.
Atlanta’s rush defense held Doug Martin to a line of 18-62-0, 3.4 avg. on the ground. Assuming Oakland’s Jalen Richard doesn’t break another 75 yard scoring run this week, this matchup has the makings of a high-scoring, aerial shootout. There is potential for Carr to hit another 300+ yard game with 2+ TDs.
Running Back
Danny Woodhead (SD) – Salaries: DK – 5200, FD – 6400. Woodhead’s week 1 against Kansas City had him 1st in team touches with a 16-89-0 rush line, and 5-31-1 on 7 targets. Woodhead’s points of 20.5/23 ranked him 7th/8th for RBs on FD/DK, respectively. Woodhead’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/7th on FD/DK, respectively.
Woodhead’s salary ranks him 23/27 for RBs this week on DK/FD, respectively. The Vegas line has the game total with Jacksonville at 47 points with the Chargers as -3 point favorites.
San Diego lost WR1 Keenan Allen to a torn ACL last weekend, leaving Woodhead the potential opportunity for an uptick in targets. Woodhead should definitely lead the Chargers in team touches again this week. There is a very good chance that Woodhead can outscore a solid chunk of the twenty-something more expensive RBs ahead of him.
Tevin Coleman (Atl) – Salaries: DK – 4500, FD – 6100. Coleman’s line against Tampa Bay had him 2nd in team touches with an 8-22-0 rush line, and 5-95-0 on 6 targets.
Coleman’s points of 14.2/16.7 ranked him 16th for RBs on both DK and FD. Coleman’s price per point efficiency ranked him 11th on both DK and FD. Coleman’s salary ranks him 31st for RBs on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line has the game total with Oakland at 49.5 (3rd highest on the board) with the Falcons as +4.5 road dogs. The implied negative game script does not necessarily hurt Coleman, as he will most likely score the majority of his points through the air.
Coleman received just three less carries than Devonta Freeman and had two more targets than Freeman. Coleman also had 77 more total yards than Freeman on two less touches, in what is currently a 50-50 split backfield. If this game does turn into a shootout with the Raiders, Coleman appears to offer more upside than Freeman, who costs roughly 20% more on avg. than Coleman.
Theo Riddick (Det) – Salaries: DK – 4300, FD – 5900. Riddick’s line against Indianapolis checked in at 7-45-1 on the ground, and 5-63-1 on 5 targets.
Riddick’s points of 25.3/27.8 ranked him 4th for RBs on both FD and DK. Riddick’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both FD and DK, only behind Spencer Ware. Riddick’s salary ranks him 34th/37th on FD/DK, respectively. Riddick’s scoring potential would project him in the top 20 RBs as a floor.
The Vegas line has the game total with Tennessee at 47.5 points with the Lions as -4.5 favorites at home. The implied negative game script does not necessarily hurt Riddick, as he will most likely generate the majority of this production in the pass game.
Against Indianapolis, Riddick and Ameer Abdullah had an even split in targets, with Abdullah out carrying Riddick 12 to 7. As previously mentioned, Tennessee’s defense projects to be much tougher on the ground than in the air, which should provide a safe floor for Riddick in this time-share backfield.
Wide Receiver
Travis Benjamin (SD) Salaries: DK – 4400, FD – 6100/Tyrell Williams (SD) Salaries: DK – 3700, FD – 5400.
Benjamin, against Kansas City, posted a line of 7-32-0 on a team leading 8 targets and Williams posted a line of 2-71-0 on 5 targets. These two receivers are now projected to be Philip Rivers’ top two receiving targets now that Keenan Allen has been placed on IR. Benjamin replaces Allen as the new WR1.
Benjamin’s salary ranks him 45th/48th on FD/DK, respectively, and Williams’ salary ranks him 64th/69th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total with Jacksonville at 47 points with the Chargers as -3 point favorites at home. Both receivers have the potential to outperform their current salary rankings with the increased opportunity, in what could potentially be a high-scoring game.
Quincy Enunwa (NYJ) – Salaries: DK – 4400, FD – 5900. Enunwa, against Cincinnati, recorded a line of 7-54-1 on 8 targets. The target total tied for the team lead with Brandon Marshall. Enunwa’s fantasy points of 15.8/19.3 ranked him 14th for WRs on both FD and DK. Enunwa’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/10th on DK/FD, respectively.
Enunwa’s salary ranks him 48th/79th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on FD.
The Vegas line has the game total with Buffalo at 40.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Jets as -1 point favorites on the road. Everything about this game projects it to be a low-scoring, defensive slug-fest. It’s a short-week Thursday night game, against a division rival, and on the road for New York. Offensive players on both teams may be faded by a lot DFS players.
This is where Enunwa steps in as a potential value sleeper. Enunwa primarily aligns in the slot and should avoid the tough outside coverage of CBs Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby. Enunwa should be a tough coverage matchup for Buffalo’s nickels and safeties, and could be a viable option if Brandon Marshall and/or Eric Decker struggle early.
Of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 35 attempts last week, only five players were targeted which entailed three receivers, two running backs, and zero tight ends. If this trend continues, the limited pool of potential target distribution would also help Enunwa’s floor.
Sterling Shepard (NYG) – Salaries: DK – 5200, FD – 6200. Shepard, against Dallas, posted a line of 3-43-1 on 4 targets. Shepard’s points of 11.8/13.3 ranked him 29th/35th on FD/DK, respectively. Shepard’s salary ranks him 38th/41st on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total with New Orleans at 53 points (highest on the board) with the Giants as -4.5 favorites at home.
It’s New Orleans, and the Giants offensive players should do well across the board in this potential high-scoring game, and the wide receivers especially should eat. Odell Beckham Jr. will be a popular play this week, but Shepard should have his fair share of looks and should outperform his salary ranking.
Willie Snead (NO) – Salaries: DK – 5200, FD – 6200. Snead, against the Raiders, amassed a line of 9-172-1 on 9 targets. His target total tied for the team high with Brandin Cooks. Snead’s points of 27.7/35.2 ranked him 4th highest on both FD and DK. Snead’s price per point efficiency ranked 1st on both sites.
Snead’s salary ranks him 17th/33rd for WRs on FD/DK, respectively, making him a much better relative value on DK.
Snead has established himself in the New Orleans pecking order as the 1B to Brandin Cooks 1A, and at this price, in this matchup against the Giants, he brings high floor/high ceiling potential.
Tight End
Brent Celek (Phi) – Salaries: DK – 2600, FD – 4800. Celek, against the Browns, recorded a line of 1-11-0 on 1 target. Celek’s salary ranks him 27th/35th on FD/DK, respectively.
Celek will be a cheap, injury replacement play as he steps in for the injured Zach Ertz. The line for Ertz was 6-58-0 on 7 targets. His target total was 2nd on the team behind Jordan Matthews.
The Vegas line has the game total with Chicago at 43 points with the Eagles as +3 road dogs on Monday night.
Rookie Carson Wentz had a good showing last weekend, ending with a 101 passer rating, but this was against Cleveland. Celek may provide a viable safety-valve option for Wentz, and Celek comes with a near bottom-barreled price tag.
Clive Walford (Oak) – Salaries: DK – 2900, FD – 4700. Walford, against New Orleans, had a line of 3-25-0 on on 5 targets (3rd highest on the team). Walford was the only Oakland tight end to receive targets because that spot is Walford’s alone, as backup Mychal Rivera was a healthy scratch last weekend.
The Vegas line has the game total with Atlanta at 49.5 (3rd highest on the board) with the Raiders as -4.5 home favorites.
Walford’s salary ranks him 24th/30th on DK/FD, respectively. Atlanta gave up a tight end line to Tampa Bay of 5-64-2 on 5 targets. If Walford got a piece of that action, at his price, that should work.
Defense
Baltimore Ravens – Salaries: DK – 3000, FD – 4500. Baltimore’s salary ranks them 10th/13th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total with Cleveland at 42.5 points (4th lowest on the board) with the Ravens as -6.5 favorites on the road. Robert Griffin III has been placed on IR so Josh McCown will start under center. This situation doesn’t change much.
Philadelphia held Cleveland’s offense to 10 points and Baltimore held Buffalo’s offense to 7 points. Baltimore’s defense ranked 3rd last week in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA rankins. Philadelphia’s fantasy score of 11 points ranked in the top five, and Baltimore could potentially return a similar result.
New York Jets – Salaries: DK – 3300, FD – 4700. The Jets’ salary ranks them 6th/7th on FD/DK, respectively.
The Vegas line has the game total with Buffalo at 40.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Jets as -1 point favorites on the road.
Starting LT Cody Glenn (ankle) has been ruled out and Sammy Watkins (foot) is questionable. New York sacked Andy Dalton seven times last week, and the Jets D-Line gets Sheldon Richardson back. The sacks may be harder to come by against the mobile Tyrod Taylor, but Taylor managed just 111 passing yards with no scores against Baltimore.
Check out the Week 2 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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