NFL Week 14: December 7 – 11, 2017
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 14.
Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thurs – Mon).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Deshone Kizer (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 6400. Kizer’s upcoming salary ranks him 29th/30th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Kizer posted a 15/32, 215, 1:1 line and 5-46-0 on the ground with a lost fumble at the Los Angeles Chargers last week. Kizer’s fantasy points of 15.2/14.2 ranked him 19th/21st on DK/FD, respectively. Kizer’s price per point efficiency ranked him 9th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Packers has the game total at 40.5 points with the Browns as +3.5 point home dogs. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 18.5 points and the Packers are currently at 22 points.
The Packers rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 21st in DVOA against the pass. The Packers also rank 26th in pass yards allowed with 242.9/gm and 17th in points allowed with 23.4/gm. Jameis Winston put up a 21/32, 270, 2:0 line and 5-18-0 with a lost fumble on the ground at Green Bay last week.
Kizer does bring a ground game as he ranks 4th in rush yards for QBs with 308. He also leads QBs in red zone rush attempts with 16 and is tied for 1st in red zone rush TDs with 5.
The resurrection of Josh Gordon adds a dynamic injection to the Cleveland offense and is now Kizer’s best weapon, which should help elevate Kizer’s floor. Kizer gets a good matchup and the Browns have a plausible shot at getting their first win this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Garoppolo’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/22nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. In his first start for his new franchise, Garoppolo posted a 26/37, 293, 0:1 line at Chicago last week.
The betting lines with the Texans has the game total at 43 points with the 49ers as +3 point road dogs. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 20 points and the Texans are currently at 23 points.
The Texans rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 15th in DVOA against the pass. The Texans also rank 22nd in pass yards allowed with 235.8/gm and 28th in points allowed with 25.8/gm. Marcus Mariota put up a 15/23, 150, 1:0 line and 3-23-1 on the ground against Houston last week.
Garoppolo put on a reasonable showing last week in his debut in a tough matchup. With two bad defenses that are both worse against the pass than the run, this game might have shootout potential. Garoppolo will have an easier matchup in his second start with the implied negative game script. Garoppolo should provide a reasonably safe floor with a decently high volume considering the fast pace at which San Francisco plays.
Josh McCown (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. McCown’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th on both DK/FD for the position. McCown posted a 26/36, 331, 1:0 line and 7-19-2 on the ground against Kansas City last week. McCown’s fantasy points of 34.14/31.14 ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD. McCown’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Broncos has the game total at 41 points with the Jets as -1 point road favorites. The Jets’ implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Broncos are currently at 20 points.
The Broncos rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 18th in DVOA against the pass. The Broncos still give up the most passing TDs with 26. Jay Cutler put up a 18/31, 235, 2:2 line against Denver last week.
McCown is on the road, where he averages 4.5 less fantasy points than when at home, but this defunct Denver team may be on the verge of collapse. CB Aqib Talib does return from his suspension this week, however.
Running Back
Peyton Barber (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. Barber’s upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/41st on DK/FD, respectively. Barber posted a 23-102-0 line and 4-41-0 on 4 targets against Denver last week. Barber’s 41 receiving yards led the team in this category. Barber’s fantasy points of 21.3/16.3 ranked him 11th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Barber’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/10th on DK/FD, respectively.
Betting lines – With Detroit headed to Tampa Bay, this game is currently off the board as the status of Matthew Stafford (hand) is uncertain at this point.
The Lions rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 25th in DVOA against the run. The Lions also rank 19th in rush yards allowed with 114.9/gm and 26th (tied) in points allowed with 25.7/gm. Baltimore RBs combined for a 25-108-2 line and 5-41-0 on 5 targets against Detroit last week.
Barber produced the first 100+ yard rushing game for Tampa Bay RBs this season. He gets a great matchup and should bring a heavy volume role with a cheap price, as long as Doug Martin (concussion), who is still in the protocol, misses this week.
UPDATE: Martin has cleared the protocol and will return this week. Barber has looked better than Martin but now this situation is clear as mud. HC Koetter has named Martin the starter.
Gio Bernard (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Bernard’s upcoming salary ranks him 92nd/58th on DK/FD, respectively. Bernard posted a 13-77-0 line and 2-19-0 on 3 targets against Pittsburgh last week. Gio took over the lead back role in the 2nd quarter after starter Joe Mixon (concussion) left the game.
The betting lines with the Bears has the game total at 38 points with the Bengals as -6 point home favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 22 points and the Bears are currently at 16 points.
The Bears rank 11th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 12th in DVOA against the run. The Bears also rank 15th in rush yards allowed with 112.2/gm and 14th in points allowed with 22.3/gm. San Francisco RBs combined for a 30-102-0 line and 7-36-0 on 9 targets at Chicago last week.
On a short week, it is possible that Mixon may not clear the protocol in time. Be that the case, Gio should shoulder a heavy volume role at a near bottom-barreled price tag.
UPDATE: Mixon has been ruled out, so expect Gio to be the chalk RB play in all formats this week.
Alfred Morris (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. Morris’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Morris posted a 27-127-1 line against Washington last week. Morris’ fantasy points of 21.7/18.7 ranked him 10th on both DK/FD for the position. Morris’ price per point efficiency ranked him 8th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 41.5 points with the Cowboys as -4.5 point road favorites. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 23 points and the Giants are currently at 18.5 points.
The Giants rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 24th in DVOA against the run. The Giants also rank last in rush yards allowed with 130.7/gm and 23rd in points allowed with 24.3/gm. Oakland RBs combined for a 25-130-2 line and 5-39-0 on 8 targets against the Giants last week.
With the Dallas passing game struggling since Zeke’s suspension, Morris will be leaned on as much as possible in this prime matchup spot along with a positive implied game script.
Wide Receiver
Marquise Goodwin (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. Goodwin’s upcoming salary ranks him 37th/48th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Goodwin posted a 8-99-0 line on 8 targets (all team highs) at Chicago last week. Goodwin’s fantasy points of 17.9/13.9 ranked him 14th/16th on DK/FD for the position. Goodwin’s price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Texans has the game total at 43 points with the 49ers as +3 point road dogs. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 20 points and the Texans are currently at 23 points.
The Texans rank 25th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 15th in DVOA against the pass.
With Garoppolo starting under center, Goodwin had his most efficient game of the season. Goodwin will have a better matchup this week, and makes for a solid stacking option with Garoppolo.
Josh Gordon (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Gordon’s upcoming salary ranks him 30th/28th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Gordon posted a 4-85-0 line on 11 targets (all team highs except for TDs) against the Chargers last week. Gordon’s fantasy points of 12.5/10.5 ranked him 27th on both DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Packers has the game total at 40.5 points with the Browns as +3.5 point home dogs. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 18.5 points and the Packers are currently at 22 points.
The Packers rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 21st in DVOA against the pass.
Flash looked good in his first game action since 2014 against perhaps the top CB in the league. Flash will get a much better matchup this week, and if he and Kizer can improve their efficiency, Flash can provide high ceiling potential. He makes for the top stacking option with Kizer and they are both cheap.
Tight End
Trey Burton (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Burton’s upcoming salary ranks him 27th/last on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Burton posted a 4-42-0 line on 7 targets at Seattle last week. Burton’s fantasy points of 8.2/6.2 ranked him 16th/17th on DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Rams has the game total at 48 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Eagles as +2.5 point road dogs. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Rams are currently at 22 points.
The Rams rank 8th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 4th in DVOA against TEs. Arizona TEs combined for a 4-61-0 line on 8 targets against Los Angeles last week.
Zach Ertz (concussion) went down in the 2nd half last week and is still in the protocol. Burton is only a viable play if Ertz were to miss. Burton’s matchup against a tough Rams defense vs. the postion, however, is less than ideal.
UPDATE: Ertz has still not cleared the protocol as of Saturday night, and per Adam Schefter, is considered doubtful this week. Burton plays in the late afternoon so expect him to be a near chalk play in any slate involving this game, as his cost is akin to a free square.
Stephen Anderson (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Anderson’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/last on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Anderson posted a 5-79-1 line on 12 targets (2nd behind DeAndre Hopkins) at Tennessee last week. Anderson’s fantasy points of 18.9/16.4 ranked him 4th/5th on DK/FD for the position. Anderson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the 49ers has the game total at 43.5 points with the Texans as -3 point home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the 49ers are currently at 20.25 points.
The 49ers rank 13th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 30th in DVOA against the pass.
The Texans have a lot going on this week. WR Bruce Ellington (hamstring) has been placed on IR. WR Braxton Miller (concussion) is in the protocol and his status is uncertain. TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion) has been placed on IR, leaving Anderson as the only listed TE on the roster. WR Will Fuller (ribs) may possibly return this week after having missed the past three games. RB Andre Ellington lined up at WR last week to help out the very thin receiving options left.
At 6’2″, 230 lbs., Anderson is more of a hybrid WR and should see looks in the slot where his matchup becomes much better. If Fuller were to return this week, Anderson’s outlook dampens as his volume projection would be difficult to guess. His salary is cheap, however, and he should see a lot of snaps regardless, if looking for a near bottom-barreled cost punt play.
UPDATE: Fuller (ribs) is expected to play this week per HC O’Brien.
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