NFL Week 14: December 7 – December 11, 2017
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 14.
Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
New York Jets – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. New York’s salary ranks them 6th/17th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on FD.
The betting lines with the Broncos has the game total at 41 points with the Jets as -1 point road favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 20 points and the Jets are currently at 21 points.
The Broncos rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to defenses, 31st in pass offense DVOA, and dead last in overall offense DVOA. Denver ranks 27th in points scored with 17.2/gm and since week 6, have averaged 12.8 points scored per game, a league low. Denver is also tied for the 3rd most sacks allowed with 39, tosses the 2nd most interceptions with 18, and gives up the 2nd most total turnovers with 27. At this point, the Broncos are the worst offense in football.
The Dolphins tallied 3 sacks, 3 picks, 2 safeties, a TD, a blocked kick, and held the Broncos to 3 offensive points, to finish as the #1 defense last week.
The Jets are tied at 11th with 17 takeaways and rank 22nd in overall DVOA defense, which is around their general ranking in most defense metrics. The Jets defense is not good, but the matchup doesn’t get much sweeter than this.
Buffalo Bills – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Buffalo’s salary ranks them 12th/1st on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on DK.
Betting lines – The game versus the visiting Colts is currently off the board due to the unknown status of Tyrod Taylor (knee). He has been diagnosed with a patellar tendon contusion.
The Colts rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to defenses, 27th in overall offense DVOA, and 29th in pass offense DVOA. The Colts also rank 27th in yards with 296/gm, 28th in scoring with 17.1/gm, and give up the most sacks with 51. Jacksonville tallied 4 sacks, 2 picks, and held the Colts to 10 points last week.
The Bills rank 19th in overall defense DVOA, however, they are strong against the pass, but weak against the run. The Bills rank 5th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, but 31st in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Buffalo logged 3 sacks and a pick against New England last week. Jacoby Brissett should have a rough outing this week.
This matchup should set up well for Buffalo and they are in play on DK. Taylor’s potential absence, however, could dampen the defensive game script. Buffalo will want to force a negative game script on Brissett as early as possible, and this would be easier done with Taylor under center.
Minnesota Vikings – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Minnesota’s salary ranks them 19th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Panthers has the game total at 41 points with the Vikings as -2.5 point road favorites. The Panthers’ implied team total is currently at 19.25 points and the Vikings are currently at 21.75 points.
The Panthers rank 14th in fantasy points allowed to defenses and 19th in overall offense DVOA. The Panthers also rank 18th (tied) in total yards with 328.7/gm and 16th in points scored with 22.4/gm. Carolina is a middling unit in most offensive metrics. New Orleans recorded 2 sacks and a fumble recovery against Carolina last week.
Minnesota ranks 7th in overall defense DVOA, 2nd in yards allowed with 289.1/gm, and 2nd in points allowed with 17/gm. In fantasy points allowed, Minnesota ranks 6th against QBs, and 1st against RBs. Minnesota held the Falcons to 9 points last week.
The strength/weakness matchups favor the Vikings across the board, and with the implied positive game script, they present a suitable play for their price tag.
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