NFL Week 11: November 16 – 20, 2017
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 11.
Salary ranks are based on the full-slate.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Blake Bortles (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Bortles’ upcoming salary ranks him 21st/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Bortles recorded a 28/51, 273, 1:2 line and 3-34-0 on the ground against the Chargers last week. Bortles’ 18.32 fantasy points ranked him 12th on both DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Browns has the game total at 37.5 points with the Jaguars as -7.5 point road favorites. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and the Browns are currently at 15 points.
The Browns rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 27th in DVOA against the pass. The Browns also rank 17th in pass yards allowed with 230.6/gm and 30th in points allowed with 26.7/gm. Matthew Stafford dropped a 17/26, 249, 3:1 line against the Browns last week.
Bortles gets a much easier matchup this week against a pass-funnel defense as Cleveland’s rush defense is their strength. Cleveland is weak against RBs in the pass however, and even RB checkdown options would help Bortles’ cause. Bortles has averaged over 44 pass attempts the past two games and his volume is trending upwards. Bortles should bring a solid floor with a cheap DK price tag.
Eli Manning (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Manning’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/23rd on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD. Manning posted a 28/37, 273, 2:0 line at San Francisco last week. Manning’s 17.92/16.92 fantasy points ranked him 13th on both DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Chiefs has the game total at 43.5 points with the Giants as +10.5 point home dogs. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 16.5 points and the Chiefs are currently at 27 points. The Chiefs are coming off their bye.
The Chiefs rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 22nd in DVOA against the pass. The Chiefs also rank 28th in pass yards allowed with 259.2/gm and 19th (tied) in points allowed with 23.1/gm. Dak Prescott dropped a 21/33, 249, 2:0 line against the Chiefs in week 9.
With a large negative implied game script, this game should have Manning in shootout mode in a favorable matchup. The anticipated volume alone should provide a solid floor play with upside.
Running Back
Latavius Murray (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000, FanDuel (FD) – 6600. Murray’s upcoming salary ranks him 43rd/13th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Murray posted a 17-68-1 line at Washington last week. Murray’s fantasy points of 12.8 ranked him 17th/14th on DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Rams has the game total at 46 points with the Vikings as -2.5 point home favorites. The Vikings’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Rams are currently at 21.75 points.
The Rams rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 15th in DVOA against the run. The Rams also rank 24th in rush yards allowed with 118/gm but 3rd (tied) in points allowed with 18/gm. Houston RBs combined for a 22-88-0 line and 1-14-0 on one target at Los Angeles last week.
Murray and Jerick McKinnon had a near even snap ratio at 49:51, but Murray out touched McKinnon 17 to 12, and was more efficient with those touches in Washington last week. Murray is slightly more expensive than McKinnon on FD, but McKinnon’s price (ranking him 14th) is $1700 more than Murray’s on DK. Murray is the DK value play in this backfield, but the positive implied game script will need to hold for him.
Austin Ekeler (SD) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Ekeler’s upcoming salary ranks him 27th/46th on DK/FD, respectively. Ekeler posted a 10-42-0 line and 5-77-2 on 5 targets with a lost fumble against the Jaguars last week. Ekeler’s fantasy points of 27.9/24.4 ranked him 3rd on both DK/FD for the position. Ekeler’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Bills has the game total at 43.5 points with the Chargers as -4 point home favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Bills are currently at 19.75 points.
The Bills rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 31st in DVOA against the run. The Bills also rank 22nd in rush yards allowed with 117/gm and 15th in points allowed with 21.8/gm. New Orleans RBs combined for a whopping 43-294-5 line and 5-32-0 on 5 targets at Buffalo last week.
Ekeler’s fourth quarter fumble proved very costly, as it likely led to the loss in OT. Ekeler was then benched for Melvin Gordon the rest of the way. Gordon out snapped Ekeler 68% compared to 33% and out-touched him 21 to 15, although Ekeler’s touches were more efficient.
Philip Rivers is currently in the concussion protocol, so his status is uncertain at the moment. Rivers’ absence would complicate the dynamic of the offense. However, if Ekeler avoids Anthony Lynn’s doghouse this week, he is a cheap play with a solid matchup.
Jamaal Williams (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/33rd on DK/FD, respectively. Williams posted a 20-67-0 line and 1-7-0 on 1 target at Chicago last week. Williams entered the fray after both Aaron Jones (MCL) and Ty Montgomery (ribs) left the game with injuries.
The betting lines with the Ravens has the game total at 38 points with the Packers as +2 point home dogs. The Packers’ implied team total is currently at 18 points and the Ravens are currently at 20 points. The Ravens are coming off their bye.
The Ravens rank 22nd in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 19th in DVOA against the run. The Ravens also rank 28th in rush yards allowed with 125.9/gm but 8th in points allowed with 19/gm.
The Ravens are tough against the pass, so the Packers will need to find a away to keep this game close. Montgomery’s status is uncertain at this moment, but even were he to give it a go, he’s one hit away from leaving the volume to Williams. The game scenario isn’t ideal, but Williams could serve as a cheap flier.
Wide Receiver
Michael Crabtree (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Crabtree’s upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/12th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting lines with the Patriots has the game total at 52.5 points (highest on the board) with the Raiders as +6.5 point dogs. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 23 points and the Patriots are currently at 29.5 points. This game is in Mexico City, which should feel like a Raider home game. The Raiders are coming off their bye.
New England ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 30th in DVOA against the pass. New England also ranks last in pass yards allowed with 287.2/gm and 14th in points allowed with 21.7/gm.
With a negative implied game script, the Raiders should have to hit shootout mode at some point. Crabtree and Amari Cooper are similarly priced on both DK and FD so either is in play. Crabtree brings a floor and Cooper brings a ceiling, but New England may focus on their bend-don’t-break mode, especially with a lead, which may lead their focus to Cooper. Crabtree has the TD equity edge with 6 compared to Cooper’s 3.
Marquise Lee (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Lee’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/26th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Lee posted a 6-55-1 line on a team high 11 targets against the Chargers last week. Lee’s fantasy points of 19.5/16.5 ranked him 15th/13th on DK/FD. Lee’s price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/11th on DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Browns has the game total at 37.5 points with the Jaguars as -7.5 point road favorites. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and the Browns are currently at 15 points.
The Browns rank 14th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 27th in DVOA against the pass.
WR2 Allen Hurns (ankle) has already been ruled out, which should add a bump to Lee’s target share. Lee would make for a solid value stack with Bortles.
Tight End
Jason Witten (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Witten’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Witten posted a 7-59-0 (team highs) line on 7 targets at Atlanta last week. Witten’s fantasy points of 12.9/9.4 ranked him 7th/11th on DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Eagles has the game total at 48 points with the Cowboys as +3.5 point home dogs. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and the Eagles are currently at 25.75 points. The Eagles are coming off their bye.
The Eagles rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 19th in DVOA against TEs.
The negative implied game script should force volume for Dak Prescott, and the Eagles weakest defensive link is against TEs. Witten may see solid volume, considering a problematic rushing scenario and Prescott probably needing to hit his most reliable safety valve. Witten shares the team lead in catches (42) with Dez Bryant and ranks 2nd on the team in targets and yards.
Tyler Kroft (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Kroft’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Kroft posted a 1-4-0 line on 6 targets at Tennessee last week.
The betting lines with the Broncos has the game total at 39 points with the Bengals as +2.5 point road dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 18.25 points and the Broncos are currently at 20.75 points.
The Broncos rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 25th in DVOA against TEs. New England TEs combined for an 8-123-1 line on 12 targets in Denver last week.
Denver is a TE funnel defense, and Kroft could see a bump in volume as he has the best Bengal offensive matchup.
Marcedes Lewis (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 4900. Lewis’ upcoming salary ranks him 26th/19th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Lewis posted a 2-29-0 line on 5 targets against the Chargers last week.
The betting lines with the Browns has the game total at 37.5 points with the Jaguars as -7.5 point road favorites. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and the Browns are currently at 15 points.
The Browns rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 30th in DVOA against TEs. Eric Ebron posted a 2-39-1 on 3 targets against Cleveland last week. Ebron was the only Detroit TE to receive targets last week.
Lewis leads the Jaguars with 4 receiving TDs, 3 of which were red zone looks (albeit all in one game), tying him for 6th amongst TEs. Lewis is near bottom-barreled in price and gets the flow chart matchup this week. Lewis would make for a contrarian, low cost stack with Bortles this week.
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