NFL Week 11: November 17th – 21st, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 11.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Cousins’ upcoming salary ranks him 14th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Cousins put up a line of 22/33, 262, 2:0 against Minnesota. Cousins’ fantasy points of 18.38 ranked him 17th/16th on DK/FD, respectively. Cousins’ price per point efficiency ranked him 15th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Packers currently has the game total at 50.5 points (4th highest on the board), with the Redskins as -2.5 point home favorites on Sunday night.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 16th in pass yards allowed (253.8), 4th in rush yards allowed (85.3), and 24th in points allowed (26.0) per game. The Packers’ defense ranks 19th (tied) in takeaways with 10 and 10th in sacks with 23. Green Bay’s defense also ranks 19th against QBs (17.34), 9th against RBs (15.36), 28th against WRs (26.4), and 26th against TEs (9.86) in fantasy points allowed. Marcus Mariota dropped a top four fantasy score against this unit last week.
Cousins gets a favorable matchup and game flow scenario at a relatively cheap cost. As with most East coast games this week, there will be weather concerns. Most notably in the D.C. area, wind conditions may be a factor, however, the current projection is that winds should lessen sometime in the evening to the 10-20 mph range.
Update – WR DeSean Jackson (shoulder) is listed as questionable, and is leaning towards a game-time call.
Marcus Mariota (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700, FanDuel (FD) – 8000. Mariota’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th on both DK and FD. Mariota put up a line of 19/26, 295, 4:0 for a 149.8 passer rating against Green Bay last week. Mariota’s fantasy points of 28.6 ranked him 4th/2nd on DK/FD, respectively. Mariota’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK and FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Colts currently has the game total at 53 points (highest on the board), with the Titans as +3 point road dogs.
The Colts’ defense ranks 31st in pass yards allowed (287.9), 22nd in rush yards allowed (114.9), and 29th in points allowed (28.4) per game. The Colts’ defense ranks 27th (tied) in takeaways with 8 and 22nd (tied) in sacks with 17. The Colts’ defense also ranks 29th against QBs (20.48), 25th against RBs (20.72), 15th against WRs (23.56), and 27th against TEs (9.92) in fantasy points allowed. Aaron Rodgers dropped a line of 26/43, 297, 3:1 and a rushing line of 6-43-0 against Indy in week 9.
As it turns out, Mariota will be a recommended play in this space for a third straight week. For the year, Mariota’s price per point efficiency ranks him first on both DK and FD. His season scoring avg. of 21.06/20.36 ranks him 8th on both DK and FD. The matchup and game script are both solid with shootout potential on tap.
Running Back
Isaiah Crowell (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Crowell’s upcoming salary ranks him 42nd/20th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Crowell put up a line of 9-23-0 and 3-30-0 on 5 targets at Baltimore last week.
The Vegas line with the Steelers currently has the game total at 48 points, with the Browns as +8 point home dogs.
The Steelers’ defense ranks 28th in pass yards allowed (278.1), 15th in rush yards allowed (102.7), and 14th (tied) in points allowed (22.9) per game. The Steelers’ defense also ranks 30th against RBs (24.36) in fantasy points allowed.
Crowell should be a high volume play due to the projected weather in Cleveland. Currently, Sunday’s matchup shows a combination of rain and snow with winds in the 25-35 mph range with occasional gusts over 50 mph. If these conditions hold, this should neutralize the implied negative game script and keep Crowell heavily involved in what potentially could turn into a slugfest.
Frank Gore (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000, FanDuel (FD) – 6300. Gore’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/19th on DK/FD, respectively. Gore put up a line of 19-60-2 and 2-11-0 on 2 targets at Green Bay in week 9. He also dropped a line of 17-61-0 and 5-22-1 on 5 targets for 19.3 points in their first meeting in Tennessee.
The Vegas line with the Titans currently has the game total at 53 points (highest on the board), with the Colts as -3 point home favorites.
The Titans’ defense ranks 24th in pass yards allowed (267.7), 8th in rush yards allowed (3.7), and 22nd in points allowed (25.1) per game. The Titans’ defense also ranks 10th against RBs (15.64) in fantasy points allowed.
Gore consistently delivers solid floor/limited ceiling output as he has produced double-digit scores (DK scoring) in every game this season except for one. He has a positive implied game script and the price tag for his level of touches should return value.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill (KC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Hill’s upcoming salary ranks him 44th/49th on DK/FD, respectively. Hill put up a line of 10-89-0 on 13 targets (all team highs) and 1-12-0 on the ground at Carolina last week. Hill’s fantasy points of 20.1/15.1 ranked him 15th/16th on DK/FD, respectively. Hill’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Bucs currently has the game total at 44.5 point), with the Chiefs as -7.5 point home favorites.
Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 23rd in pass yards allowed (267.7), 25th in rush yards allowed (118.3), and 26th in points allowed (23.4) per game. Tampa Bay’s defense also ranks 30th against WRs (27.02) in fantasy points allowed.
Jeremy Maclin (groin) missed Wednesday’s practice and is at risk of missing another week. If he does end up out again, expect Hill to fill in again in a plus matchup at a cheap price.
Update – Jeremy Maclin has been ruled out for Sunday’s game.
Rishard Matthews (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Matthews’ upcoming salary ranks him 34th/35th on DK/FD, respectively. Matthews put up a line of 3-63-1 on 5 targets against Green Bay last week. Matthews’ fantasy points of 15.3/13.8 ranked him 25th/23rd on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Colts currently has the game total at 53 points (highest on the board), with the Titans as +3 point road dogs.
The Colts’ defense ranks 31st in pass yards allowed (287.9), 22nd in rush yards allowed (114.9), and 29th in points allowed (28.4) per game. The Colts’ defense also ranks 29th against QBs (20.48), and 15th against WRs (23.56) in fantasy points allowed.
Matthews gets a great matchup and a positive implied game script. Matthews has scored four TDs in the past three games and has the potential to return value for his cheap price.
Tight End
Julius Thomas (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 14th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Thomas posted a line of 6-24-1 on 10 targets (2nd on team) against Houston last week. Thomas’ fantasy points of 14.4/11.4 ranked him 7th on both DK and FD, respectively. Thomas’ price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Lions currently has the game total at 47 points, with the Jaguars as +6.5 point road dogs.
The Lions’ defense ranks 18th in pass yards allowed (259.3), 18th in rush yards allowed (107.0), and 14th (tied) in points allowed (22.9) per game. The Lions’ defense ranks 31st in takeaways (7) and 16th in sacks (20). The Lions’ defense also ranks last against TEs (12.7) in fantasy points allowed.
Thomas get his shot at Detroit’s defense with a positive implied game script, indoors, the best TE matchup, and the potential for garbage-time stat padding as well. Add the TE2 price tag to the mix, and the recipe for solid return value is all set to go.
Martellus Bennett (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Bennett’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/15th on DK/FD, respectively. Bennett posted a line of 7-102-0 on 7 targets (2nd on team) against Seattle last week. Bennett’s fantasy points of 20.2/13.7 ranked him 3rd/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Bennett’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Lions currently has the game total at 51 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Patriots as -13 point road favorites (widest spread on the board).
San Francisco’s defense ranks 14th in pass yards allowed (249.2), last in rush yards allowed (180.4), and last in points allowed (31.4) per game. San Francisco’s defense ranks 8th (tied) in takeaways (15) and 25th in sacks (16). San Francisco’s defense also ranks 14th against TEs (6.98) in fantasy points allowed.
Rob Gronkowski (perforated lung) will miss this game, giving Bennett a bump up. Last week, it was the Blount and Bennett game, leaving another dealer’s choice scenario for New England, sans Gronk, this week. Considering Bennett’s price tag and the potential ceiling available, Bennett is definitely worth consideration as a decent floor, high-upside play.
Update – WR Chris Hogan (back) has been ruled out for Sunday.
Check out the Week 11 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 11 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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