NFL Week 11: November 16 – 20, 2017
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 11.
Salary ranks are based on the full slate.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
Philadelphia Eagles – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. Philadelphia’s salary ranks them 13th/7th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The betting lines with the Cowboys has the game total at 48 points with the Eagles as -3 point road favorites. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and the Eagles are currently at 25.5 points. The Eagles are coming off their bye.
Philadelphia ranks 10th (tied) in sacks with 25 and 7th in total takeaways with 16. Philadelphia also ranks 10th in yards allowed with 315.9/gm and points allowed with 19.9/gm.
Dallas ranks 7th in fantasy points allowed to defenses. Atlanta registered 8 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, and held the Cowboys to 7 points last week, to rank as the highest scoring defense in week 10.
The Cowboys will be without Zeke Elliott (suspension) and likely without LT Tyron Smith (groin) again this week, which will be a massive blow to the Dallas offense. Atlanta’s Adrian Clayborn accounted for 6 of the 8 sacks as Smith’s backup, Chaz Green, got torched by Clayborn all game.
Dallas LB Sean Lee (hamstring) has already been ruled out for the next three games, which should benefit Philly’s defense in the time of possession outlook. Dak Prescott may be in for a long day.
Cincinnati Bengals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Cincinnati’s salary ranks them 11th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Broncos has the game total at 39.5 points with the Bengals as +2.5 point road dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Bengals are currently at 18.5 points.
The Bengals rank 7th (tied) in sacks with 26, 13th in yards allowed with 321/gm, and 12th in points allowed with 20.2/gm. The Bengals recorded four sacks, a pick, and a fumble recovery at Tennessee last week.
Denver ranks 30th in fantasy points allowed to defenses, allows the 7th (tied) most sacks with 28, and the 2nd most total giveaways with 21. Denver also ranks 20th in yards with 328.6/gm and 24th in scoring with 18.4/gm. New England logged an interception, a recovered fumble, a blocked kick, a return TD, and held Denver to 16 points last week.
This game projects as a defensive slugfest, and the Bengals are setup with a solid matchup at a target value.
New Orleans Saints – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. New Orleans’s salary ranks them 4th/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The betting lines with the Redskins has the game total at 51 points with the Saints as -7.5 point home favorites. The Redskins’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Saints are currently at 29.25 points.
The Saints rank 10th (tied) in sacks with 25, 7th (tied) in interceptions with 10, 8th in yards allowed with 312.3/gm, and 5th (tied) in points allowed with 18.3/gm. The Saints registered two sacks, a pick, and held the Bills to 10 points at Buffalo last week.
Washington ranks 23rd in fantasy points allowed to defenses, and coughs up the 9th most total giveaways with 15. Minnesota recorded a sack and a pick at Washington last week.
Rob Kelley (ankle/knee) will miss multiple weeks, leaving Samaje Perine to fill the two-down RB role. The status of Jordan Reed (hamstring) is currently unknown. Kirk Cousins, coming off a huge game against Minnesota last week, will need to shoulder the load at the New Orleans fast-track, with a big negative implied game script to overcome.
Arizona Cardinals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Arizona’s salary ranks them 8th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting lines with the Texans has the game total at 43.5 points with the Cardinals as -1.5 point road favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Cardinals are currently at 22.5 points.
The Cardinals rank 14th (tied) in sacks with 23, but also rank in the bottom-half in yards allowed, points allowed, and turnovers.
Houston ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to defenses. Houston also gives up the 4th most sacks with 31 and the 3rd (tied) most turnovers with 17. The Rams registered three sacks, two picks, two fumble recoveries, and held the Texans to 7 points last week, checking in with the second highest defensive score for week 10.
Will Fuller (cracked ribs) will likely miss this week’s game, leaving Deandre Hopkins as Houston’s most viable weapon, but Hopkins will likely have a terrible matchup as he projects to get the Patrick Peterson treatment.
Tom Savage has been named the week 11 starter, but after a four turnover game, he may be on a short leash with T.J. Yates next in line. Either way, it’s all good for Arizona.
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