NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 7
NFL Week 7: October 21 – October 25, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 7.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (10 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 7100. Tua’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-5) – Over/Under: 47.5
Implied Team Totals:
Falcons = 25 (Coming off of bye)
Dolphins = 22.5
Tua posted a passing line of 33/47, 329, 2:1, and 3-22-0 on the ground against the Jaguars (24th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB7 finish.
The Falcons rank 23rd vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed and 30th in pass defense DVOA.
The Dolphins O-line ranks 21st in adjusted sack rate vs. a Falcons’ defense which ranks 20th.
Tua should have no choice but to be busy, given the implied passing script, to go along with a league worst rushing team.
Running Back
Miles Sanders (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Sanders’ upcoming salary ranks him 24th/20th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-2) -3 – Over/Under: 49.5
Implied Team Totals:
Raiders = 26.25
Eagles = 23.25
Sanders posted a 9-56-0 rushing line (6.2 avg.) and 2-10-0 on 4 targets (16.7%) with 43 snaps (83%) against the Bucs (9th vs. RBs) last week.
Broncos’ RBs combined for a 21-103-0 rushing line (5.9 avg.) and 7-41-0 on 8 targets against the Raiders last week. The Eagles’ O-line ranks 21st in adjusted line yards vs. the Raiders’ defense which ranks 19th.
The Raiders’ defense ranks 21st vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed.
Sanders’ 83% snap rate ranked 4th for all RBs in Week 6. Sanders has now assumed the volume workhorse role in Philly, which makes him a rare RB play with such a role at his price range. Sanders has yet to score on the season, but he won’t be shut out forever.
Wide Receiver
Mecole Hardman (KC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Hardman’s upcoming salary ranks him 39th/42nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) -5.5 at Tennessee Titans (4-2) – Over/Under: 57.5
Implied Team Totals:
Chiefs = 31.5
Titans = 26
Hardman posted a 4-62-0 line on 5 targets (10.9%) with 49 snaps (60%), at Washington (16th vs. WRs) last week.
Bills’ WRs combined for a 23-293-2 line on 31 targets at Tennessee last week.
The Titans rank 32nd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 27th in pass defense DVOA. They also give up the most targets (24.67) and catches (16.33 tied) to WRs.
The Titans’ are currently down to one healthy/bad CB starter, and with a near non-existent pass-rush (28th in pressure %), Chiefs’ pass-catchers should eat.
Rashod Bateman (BAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Bateman’s upcoming salary ranks him 60th/46th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1) -6 – Over/Under: 47
Implied Team Totals:
Ravens = 26.5
Bengals = 20.5
Bateman posted a 4-29-0 line on a team high (tied) 6 targets (22.2%) with 45 snaps (65%) against the Chargers (3rd vs. WRs) last week.
Lions’ WRs combined for a 14-87-0 line on 20 targets against the Bengals last week.
The Bengals rank 12th vs WRs in fantasy points allowed.
In his season debut, the rookie logged the 2nd most WR snaps on the team. The Bengals’ defense have only faced two competent WR units thus far (the Vikings and Davante Adams), and were shredded on both occasions. Bateman has potential upside for cheap.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4600, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Goedert’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/8th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-2) -3 – Over/Under: 49.5
Implied Team Totals:
Raiders = 26.25
Eagles = 23.25
Goedert (COVID) missed last week.
In his last game as an Eagle, Zach Ertz posted a 4-29-1 line on a team high 6 targets (25%), with 46 snaps (88%), against the Bucs (24th vs. TEs) last week.
Broncos’ TEs combined for a 12-120-1 line on 16 targets against the Raiders last week.
The Raiders rank 27th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed. They also allow the 2nd most targets (9.5) and catches (6.83) to the TE position.
Goedert and Ertz split snaps at a near even clip (approx. 60%) this season. Inside-the-10 yard line, Goedert and Ertz combined for 6 of 10 of the team targets, 4 of 5 catches, and all 4 TDs.
With Ertz traded to the Cardinals, Goedert solely assumes the passing TE role on a near 90% snap rate. Opportunity, red zone usage, and a great matchup makes Goedert a solid value this week.
Mike Gesicki (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Gesicki’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-5) – Over/Under: 47.5
Implied Team Totals:
Falcons = 25 (Coming off of bye)
Dolphins = 22.5
Gesicki posted an 8-115-0 line on 9 targets (19.1%) with 49 snaps (70%) against the Jaguars (30th vs. TEs) last week, good for the TE2 finish.
The Falcons rank 14th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed.
Gesicki leads the team in yards, and ranks 2nd in team targets and catches, like he did last season. With Tua back under center, Gesicki should continue his role as top two target.
