NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 16
NFL Week 16: December 23 – 27, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 16.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 7100. Burrow’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Baltimore Ravens (8-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) -2.5 – Over/Under: 44.5.
Implied Team Totals:
Bengals = 23.5
Ravens = 21
Burrow posted a 15/22, 157, 1:0 passing line and 5-25-0 on the ground at Denver (3rd vs. QBs) last week.
Aaron Rodgers logged a 23/31, 268, 3:0 passing line and 4-11-0 on the ground at Baltimore last week.
The Ravens ranks 25th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed, 29th in pass defense DVOA, and 26th in dropback EPA.
The Bengals’ O-line ranks 31st in adjusted sack rate vs. the Ravens’ defense which ranks 26th.
Burrow has a nice combination of price, matchup, and health relative to other QBs on this slate. Burrow also dropped 30.6 fantasy points on the Ravens in Week 7.
Running Back
Ronald Jones II (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 24th/37th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (5-9) +10 – Over/Under: 44
Implied Team Totals:
Buccaneers = 27
Panthers = 17
Jones logged an 8-63-0 rushing line (7.9 avg.) and 2-8-0 on 2 targets with 22 snaps (33%) against the Saints (2nd vs. RBs) last week.
Bills’ RBs combined for a 23-87-1 rushing line (3.8 avg.) and 1-10-0 on 1 target against the Panthers last week.
The Panthers’ defense ranks 3rd vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 24th in rush defense DVOA, and 7th in rush defense EPA. The Bucs’ O-line ranks 1st in adjusted line yards vs. the Panthers’ defense which ranks 12th.
RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) has been placed on IR. Jones will be the next man up as big favorites. The run game could be heavily emphasized, as WR Chris Godwin (ACL) is done for the year, and WR Mike Evans (hamstring) is currently questionable.
Wide Receiver
Antonio Brown (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Brown’s upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4) at Carolina Panthers (5-9) +10 – Over/Under: 44
Implied Team Totals:
Buccaneers = 27
Panthers = 17
Bills’ WRs combined for a 14-162-3 line on 24 targets against the Panthers last week.
The Panthers’ defense ranks 6th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 8th in pass defense DVOA, and 6th in dropback EPA.
Brown returns from his 3-game suspension and is reportedly healthy. He will see a full allotment of snaps with Godwin out and possibly Evans as well.
Tight End
Cole Kmet (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 5000. Kmet’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Chicago Bears (4-10) at Seattle Seahawks (5-9) -6.5 – Over/Under: 43
Implied Team Totals:
Seahawks = 24.75
Bears = 18.25
Kmet posted a 6-71-0 line on 9 targets (25%) with 69 snaps (95%), against the Vikings (10th vs. TEs) last week. Kmet’s targets, catches, and yards led the team.
Rams’ TEs combined for a 1-9-0 line on 2 targets against the Seahawks last week.
The Seahawks’ defense ranks 27th vs. TEs in fantasy points, 28th in pass defense DVOA, and 23rd in dropback EPA.
Kmet has averaged 8 targets, 5 catches, and 48.5 yards over his last four games. Kmet has been getting solid volume and provides for a cheap play with a good matchup.
