NFL Player Prop Bets – Week 12
All Player Prop lines are from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
This will be updated throughout the week as new props are posted.
On November 24, 2021:
The Play: Kenyan Drake (LV) Receiving Yards
The Line: 11.5 Receiving Yards
The Pick: Over (-120)
Drake’s target share (12.9%) ranks 3rd on the team sans Henry Ruggs. The Raiders are currently 7.5 point dogs. Drake should see meaningful passing-down snaps and enough opportunity to cover.
The Play: Zack Moss (BUF) Receptions
The Line: 1.5 Receptions
The Pick: Under (-115)
Moss’ snaps are falling off a cliff, as he’s now the RB3 on the team, behind Devin Singletary and Matt Breida. Breida has now emerged as the clear RB2.
The Play: Derek Carr (LV) Pass Attempts
The Line: 37.5 Pass Attempts
The Pick: Under (-105)
As 7.5 point favorites, if the Cowboys can run and burn clock, they will. The Raiders have not been able to space the field without Ruggs, downgrading the pass game overall.
The Play: D’Andre Swift (DET) Rush Yards
The Line: 68.5 Rush Yards
The Pick: Under (-115)
RB Jamal Williams returned last week for 7 carries and could cap some of Swift’s touches. Swift can always break one, but tough to always bank on.
On November 25, 2021:
The Play: Tyler Boyd (CIN) Receptions
The Line: 4.5 Receptions
The Pick: Under (+105)
Last week’s game against the Raiders seems like an outlier, where Boyd’s catches were more than that of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined.
On November 26, 2021:
The Play: N’Keal Harry (NE) Receiving Yards
The Line: 12.5 Receiving Yards
The Pick: Under (-115)
Harry ranks 4th in team WR snaps, that likes running “12” personnel whenever possible. The Patriots are currently favored by 7 points, so the whenever possible box is definitely checked.
The Play: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) Passing Yards
The Line: 225.5 Passing Yards
The Pick: Under (-115)
WR A.J. Brown (chest) is ruled out, leaving Dez Fitzpatrick, Chester Rogers, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as the Titans starting WRs, who get to face a Patriots’ defense ranked 2nd in pass defense DVOA, 4th in dropback EPA, and 4th in adjusted sack rate.
The Play: C.J. Uzomah (CIN) Receiving Yards
The Line: 28.5 Receiving Yards
The Pick: Under (-115)
Uzomah’s 10% team target share and 5th lowest TE targeted air yards caps his ceiling, and he has cleared this number 5 times in 11 games.
The Play: Nick Chubb (CLE) Rush Attempts
The Line: 17.5 Rush Attempts
The Pick: Under (-120)
RB Kareem Hunt returns from IR this week, and should resume his former role as the Browns are +4 point road dogs.
On November 27, 2021:
The Play: Baker Mayfield (CLE) Pass Attempts
The Line: 27.5 Pass Attempts
The Pick: Over (-120)
The Ravens are a pass-funnel defense, and with the Browns as +4 point dogs, paths to enough throwing opportunities should be there.
The Play: Cooper Kupp (LAR) Receptions
The Line: 8.5 Receptions
The Pick: Under (+100)
Paths for the under exist against a Packers’ defense giving up the 9th fewest catches to WRs.
The Play: David Njoku (CLE) Receiving yards
The Line: 17.5 Receiving yards
The Pick: Over (-115)
The Ravens give up the most targets and 5th most catches to TEs on the year. Njoku has cleared this line in 7 of 10 games thus far.
The Play: Ty Johnson (NYJ) Rush Attempts
The Line: 6.5 Rush Attempts
The Pick: Over (-125)
Johnson and Tevin Coleman should share the workload now with Michael Carter (ankle) out for a few weeks. Johnson should see enough opportunity in a close game, against a Texans’ defense ranked 23rd in rush defense DVOA, and 24th in rush EPA.
On November 28, 2021:
The Play: Kareem Hunt (CLE) Rush Yards
The Line: 42.5 Rush Yards
The Pick: Under (-115)
Hunt’s role should be more pass-centric.
Scorecard: NFL Player Props
Last Week: 4-5
Cumulative: 39-32-1
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