The 2017 NFL season begins!
Salaries are out for both DraftKings and FanDuel so we can take a look at some potential value player picks and salary exploits to kick off week 1 of the NFL season!
The preseason has been a bloodbath of injuries to several teams, which certainly changes the dynamic of some matchups heading into week 1.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the preseason as new info comes to light.
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Update: Due to #Irma, the NFL just announced that the Tampa Bay vs. Miami game WILL NOT be played this Sunday. This game has been moved to week 11 when both teams had their bye.
All players from these two teams will not be available on any week 1 slates. Adjust your lineups accordingly before lock.
Quarterback
Brian Hoyer (SF) – Salaries: DK – 5100, FD – 6400. Hoyer’s upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/27th on DK/FD, respectively, for QBs, making him a cheap option on both sites.
The Vegas line at San Francisco currently has the game total at 48 points with Carolina as -5.5 point road favorites.
Last season, Carolina gave up the 4th most passing yards (268.2), the 7th most points per game (25.1), and the 11th most fantasy points to QBs (17.88).
Hoyer, with an overhauled 49ers unit, may be worth a flier. With an implied 49ers score of 21 points, garbage-time points count all the same.
Eli Manning (NYG) – Salaries: DK – 5600, FD – 7300. Manning’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/15th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line in Dallas currently has the game total at 47.5 points with the Giants as +3.5 point road dogs.
Dallas ranked 1st in rush yards allowed/gm (83.5) and 26th in pass yards allowed/gm (260.4), while the Giants ranked 29th in rush yards/gm (88.3). The Giants should continue to have issues running the ball, and this game should be no exception.
Eli gets new additions to the passing unit in Brandon Marshall, and first-round pick TE Evan Engram. New York’s defense is solid and Dallas will not have the services of Ezekiel Elliot (at this moment) to effectively kill the clock.
Eli should have adequate opportunities to air-it-out. However, Eli is a complete fade if it turns out that Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) is a week 1 scratch.
Carson Palmer (ARI) – Salaries: DK – 6000, FD – 7300. Palmer’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/15th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line in Detroit currently has the game total at 48 points with the Cardinals as -1.5 point road favorites.
Detroit’s defense gave up the 5th most fantasy points (18.6) to QBs last season. Palmer has looked sharp in preseason action, and his week 1 matchup brings nothing daunting. Early season usage would be an optimal time to use him, before injury/age start kicking in.
Derek Carr (OAK) – Salaries: DK – 6700, FD – 7700. Carr’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line in Tennessee currently has the game total at 51 points (highest on the board) with the Raiders as +2 point road dogs. This game in general would be a good one to target.
Tennessee gave up the 3rd most passing yards/gm (269.2) and the 4th most fantasy points to QBs (18.75) last season. Carr’s new offensive additions include RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, and TE Jared Cook. Tennessee has been tough against the run, so this should shape up into a Carr game, who has looked sharp in preseason action.
Running Back
Jacquizz Rodgers (TB) – Salaries: DK – 4900, FD – 6700. Rodgers’ upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/14th on DK/FD, respectively, for RBs, making him a better relative value on DK.
The Vegas line at Miami currently has the game total at 45.5 points with Tampa Bay as -2.5 point road favorites.
In his five appearances last season where Rodgers had at least 17 touches, he averaged 14.9 fantasy points. With Doug Martin suspended the first three games of the season, Quizz will take lead back duties in a three-down role with an implied positive game script.
Miami’s run defense ranked the 12th worst in fantasy points allowed to RBs last season, averaging 23.4 points allowed. Although Miami has a solid D-Line, their weakness is at the LB level. Jameis Winston has a full arsenal of aerial weapons available to him this season, which should help keep Miami’s defense from stacking eight-man boxes against Quizz.
Rodgers makes for a solid-floor, high upside value play for week 1.
Todd Gurley (LAR) – Salaries: DK – 6000, FD – 7300. Gurley’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line against the Colts currently has the game total at 42 points with the Rams as -3 point home favorites. This line turned a full 180 with a 6 point swing from a few days ago.
The Colts gave up the 7th most fantasy points to RBs (26.06) and the 8th most rush yards allowed/gm (120.4).
This play is contingent that Luck is out for week 1. Be that the case, the Rams should get adequate possessions, enough for Gurley to remain the focal point for the offense.
Update: Andrew Luck has been ruled out and Scott Tolzien will get the start.
Darren McFadden (DAL) – Salaries: DK – 6100, FD – 5800. McFadden’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/31st on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on FD.
The Vegas line in Dallas currently has the game total at 47.5 points with the Giants as +3.5 point road dogs.
McFadden will get the start due to Ezekiel Elliott’s current six game suspension. Elliott is appealing this decision however. The matchup against the Giants is not great as New York ranks in the top 5 in rush yards allowed/gm and fantasy points allowed to RBs, but McFadden has a positive implied game script and the O-line is still solid.
Update: Elliott suspension upheld but he’s currently cleared to play in week 1.
Wide Receiver
Michael Crabtree (OAK) – Salaries: DK – 6000, FD – 6900. Crabtree’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line in Tennessee currently has the game total at 51 points (highest on the board) with the Raiders as +2 point road dogs.
Tennessee gave up the most fantasy points to WRs (41.58) last season. Crabtree has led the Raiders in catches and receiving TDs the past two seasons, and has a solid matchup in what should be an offensive shootout.
Rishard Matthews (TEN) – Salaries: DK – 4200, FD – 6100. Matthews’s upcoming salary ranks him 41st/31st on DK/FD, respectively.
Matthews faces more competition for targets with the new additions of Eric Decker and first-round pick WR Corey Davis, as well as Delanie Walker, but the Oakland secondary can be beat, and he is cheap. Decker (ankle) and Davis (hamstring) have missed time due to injuries so chemistry with Marcus Mariota may be lacking.
Davante Adams (GB) – Salaries: DK – 5200, FD – 6800. Adams’ upcoming salary ranks him 25th/17th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line at Green Bay currently has the game total at 49.5 points (3rd highest on the board) with Seattle as +3 point road dogs.
If Richard Sherman lines up on Jordy Nelson, then Adams will likely face off with Jeremy Lane. Adams was the 9th highest fantasy scoring WR last season to Nelson’s #1. TD regression may hit Adams this season but life is good when you are Aaron Rodgers second favorite target.
Update: Seattle received DT Sheldon Richardson in a trade with the Jets in exchange for WR Jermaine Kearse.
Tight End
Cameron Brate (TB) – Salaries: DK – 3100, FD – 5200. Brate’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line in Miami currently has the game total at 45 points with Tampa Bay as -2.5 point road favorites.
Miami gave up the 8th most fantasy points to TEs (13.98) and Brate led the league in red zone TE TDs with 8. Brate also led Tampa Bay in red zone catches and TDs. Jameis Winston has two favorite options in the red zone, but Brate comes much cheaper than Mike Evans.
Zach Ertz (PHI) – Salaries: DK – 3500, FD – 5900. Ertz’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line at Washington currently has the game total at 47.5 points with Philadelphia as +1 point road dogs.
Washington gave up the 5th most fantasy points to TEs (15.18) last season. Ertz led the Eagles in catches, yards, and receiving TDs last season. New additions to the offense include WRs Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, with the departure of Jordan Matthews to Buffalo. Ertz remains the most familiar target for Carson Wentz at the moment and the price is right
Check out the Week 1 defense value plays here.
Check out the Week 1 schedule with Vegas spreads/totals here.
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