NFL Week 12: November 26 – 30, 2020
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 12.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Derek Carr (LV) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700 (11.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7100 (11.8% of cap). Carr’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Falcons (3-7) has the game total at 55.5 points, with the Raiders (6-4) as -3 point road favorites. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 29.25 points and the Falcons are currently at 26.25 points.
Carr posted a 23/31, 275, 3:1 passing line against the Chiefs (12th vs. QBs) last week.
Taysom Hill put up an 18/23, 233, 0:0 passing line and 10-51-2 on the ground with a lost fumble against the Falcons last week.
The Falcons’ defense ranks last against QBs in fantasy points allowed and 26th over the past four weeks. The Falcons’ defense also ranks 30th vs. WRs, and last vs. TEs.
The Raiders’ offense ranks 6th in sacks allowed (14), 3rd in QB hits allowed (31), and 7th in pressure rate allowed (15.4%). The Falcons’ defense ranks 23rd in sacks (17), 10th in QB hits (64), and 8th in pressure rate (24%).
The Falcons’ pass-funnel defense, along with Carr’s cheap price, brings upside potential along with a salary relief spot.
Running Back
Wayne Gallman Jr. (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000 (10% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Gallman’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/24th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Bengals (2-7-1) has the game total at 43 points with the Giants (3-7) as -6 point road favorites. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 24.5 points and the Bengals are currently at 18.5 points. The Giants are coming off their bye.
Gallman posted an 18-53-2 rushing line and 1-7-0 on 2 targets with 42 snaps (59%) against the Eagles (8th vs. RBs) in Week 10. Gallman’s touches and snap rate are personal season highs.
The Browns’ RBs combined for a 33-125-1 rushing line, and 1-10-0 on 1 target against the Eagles last week.
The Bengals rank 15th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 16th over the past four weeks. The Giants’ offense ranks 31st in adjusted line yards vs. the Bengals’ defense which ranks last.
Gallman’s 5 rushing TDs inside the 5 yard line ranks him 4th (tied) in the league. Gallman has averaged 15.8 fantasy points over his past four games, against much tougher matchups in the Eagles (twice), Washington, and the Bucs. He’ll also get a rare positive-script as the Giants are actually favorites this week.
Salvon Ahmed (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100 (10.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.7% of cap). Ahmed’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/21st on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Jets (0-10) has the game total at 44.5 points, with the Dolphins (6-4) as -7 point road favorites. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Jets are currently at 18.5 points.
Ahmed posted a 21-85-1 rushing line and 5-31-0 on 6 targets with 31 snaps (48%) at Denver (15th vs. RBs) last week. Ahmed’s targets and catches ranked 2nd on the team.
The Chargers’ RBs combined for a 23-46-0 rushing line and 11-43-0 on 13 targets against the Jets last week.
The Jets’ DST ranks 25th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 17th over the past four weeks. The Dolphins’ O-line ranks 28th in adjusted line yards vs. the Jets’ defense which ranks 2nd.
Ahmed continued his workhorse role last week, with another good opportunity as solid favorites, against the joke Jets.
Wide Receiver
Sterling Shepard (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5400 (9% of cap). Shepard’s upcoming salary ranks him 27th/45th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Bengals (2-7-1) has the game total at 43 points with the Giants (3-7) as -6 point road favorites. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 24.5 points and the Bengals are currently at 18.5 points.
Shepard posted a 6-47-0 receiving line on 6 targets with 58 snaps (82%) against the Eagles (12th vs. WRs) last week.
Washington’s WRs combined for an 11-124-1 receiving line on 13 targets against the Bengals last week.
The Bengals’ defense ranks 23rd vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 29th over the past four weeks.
Shepard averaged 8 targets and 6.5 catches over his past four games against tougher matchups than he’ll see this week.
Tight End
Austin Hooper (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3800 (7.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Hooper’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Jaguars (1-9) has the game total at 49 points with the Browns (7-3) as -6.5 point home favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 27.25 points and the Jaguars are currently at 21.25 points.
Hooper put up a 3-33-0 receiving line on 5 targets with 33 snaps (67%) against the Eagles last week. His targets and catches tied for team leads.
Eric Ebron posted a 4-36-1 receiving line on 7 targets at Jacksonville last week.
The Jaguars’ defense ranks 26th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 12th over the past four weeks.
The positional matchup is good, but that is much better for his RB teammates.
